Official Statistics

Final proven reoffending statistics for Community Rehabilitation Companies and the National Probation Service

Published 29 July 2021

Applies to England and Wales

© Crown copyright 2021

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This publication is available at https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/payment-by-results-statistics-october-2015-to-september-2020/final-proven-reoffending-statistics-for-community-rehabilitation-companies-and-the-national-probation-service

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April to June 2019 and July to September 2019

1. Main points

This publication provides the final proven reoffending results for the April to June 2019 and July to September 2019 offender cohorts being managed by Community Rehabilitation Companies (CRC) under Payment by Results (PbR) arrangements.
Twenty CRCs achieved significant reductions in the binary rate Twenty CRCs in the April to June 2019 cohort will receive a payment for statistically significant reductions in the binary rate compared to the 2011 baseline.
None of the CRCs saw significant increases in the binary rate None of the CRCs in the April to June 2019 cohort will receive a financial deduction for statistically significant increases in the binary rate compared to the 2011 baseline.
Seventeen CRCs achieved significant reductions in the binary rate Seventeen CRCs in the July to September 2019 cohort will receive a payment for statistically significant reductions in the binary rate compared to the 2011 baseline.
None of the CRCs saw significant increases in the binary rate None of the CRCs in the July to September 2019 cohort will receive a financial deduction for statistically significant increases in the binary rate compared to the 2011 baseline.

2. Statistician’s comment

“This report covers final proven reoffending results for the April to June 2019 and July to September 2019 offender cohorts being managed by CRCs under PbR arrangements. A proven reoffence is measured over a one-year follow-up period and a further six-month waiting period to allow the offence to be proven in court.[footnote 1]

In March 2020, the first set of lockdown restrictions were put in place in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. These measures, which included limited court activity, led to a sharp decrease in the number of cases processed at the criminal courts between March and April 2020. While more recent figures are showing signs of recovery, the impact of the pandemic on the courts is still evident, particularly in the outstanding caseload and court timeliness performance.[footnote 2] In addition, police recorded crime figures fell substantially during the first lockdown period, decreasing by 19% in April to June 2020 compared to the same quarter in 2019. Specifically, the greatest decreases were observed in theft and robbery offences (reductions of 43% and 47% respectively over the same period).[footnote 3]

As the reoffending and waiting periods of both offender cohorts coincide with the first national lockdown, the latest results indicate that this has had a noticeable effect on the number of CRCs receiving payments for statistically significant reductions in binary reoffending. Indeed, twenty CRCs – the highest number to date – will receive payments for the April to June 2019 offender cohort, and 17 CRCs for the July to September 2019 offender cohort. This compares to 15 in October to December 2018 and 18 in January to March 2019. For pre-pandemic offender cohorts[footnote 4] between October 2015 and September 2018, the number of CRCs receiving payments for improvements in binary reoffending ranged from nine to 17.

It is worth noting that the phased lifting of the first set of lockdown restrictions[footnote 5] also coincides with the reoffending follow-up and waiting periods for both offender cohorts; future releases of this bulletin will, therefore, help to establish what the likely effects are as the courts work through their backlog of cases.”

3. Introduction

This publication provides the final proven reoffending results for the April to June 2019 and July to September 2019 offender cohorts that are being managed by CRCs under PbR arrangements. These results reflect the changes to the CRC contracts,[footnote 6] announced in 2018, which resulted in an adjustment to the binary measure and a change to the frequency baseline[footnote 7] against which CRCs are compared.

The one-year proven reoffending measures used to assess CRC performance are:

  • the binary rate (proportion of offenders who reoffend); and
  • the frequency rate (the average number of reoffences per reoffender)

The binary rate for each CRC is subject to an adjustment for changes in the case mix of offenders being supervised, using the Offender Group Reconviction Scale (OGRS), version 4/G,[footnote 8] to allow performance to be assessed against the baseline year of 2011.[footnote 9] This is referred to as the OGRS4/G-adjusted binary reoffending rate.

The publication also includes final results for the National Probation Service (NPS). However, please note that final results for the NPS have not changed as a result of the contract variations since they are not compared against a baseline threshold in the same way.

3.1 Contract variation

Under contract variations, the following changes have been made to the binary and frequency measures, for assessing CRC performance:

  1. An additional adjustment has been made to the OGRS4/G-adjusted binary reoffending rate to account for a change in the data source in October 2015, as explained in the published technical note.[footnote 10]

  2. As announced in the ‘Strengthening probation, building confidence’ consultation document,[footnote 11] the baseline year, against which CRC performance on the frequency of reoffending is compared, has now changed. All CRCs are now compared against a 2015/16 baseline, with the exception of Merseyside CRC, which has retained the 2011 baseline.

Both adjustments were applied retrospectively to all final CRC cohorts in the October 2018 bulletin.[footnote 12]

To aid the user, and in the interests of transparency, the accompanying tables include the actual binary rates before any adjustments alongside the OGRS4/G-adjusted binary rates and 2018 contract-adjusted binary rates. Further information on these changes is available in section 4.

From this point forward, the 2018 contract-adjusted binary rate will be referred to as the adjusted binary rate.

For technical detail on how proven reoffending is measured, please refer to the accompanying guide to proven reoffending statistics.[footnote 13]

4. Final results

Final results are based on a cohort of offenders being managed by CRCs in the community under PbR arrangements, and by the NPS. All offenders have been subject to the full one-year follow-up period and the additional six-month waiting period as detailed in the guide to proven reoffending statistics.[footnote 14]

Reporting of proven reoffending rates for offenders managed by CRCs is based on comparisons with 2011 baseline reoffending rates. Comparisons of performance between different CRCs and previous cohorts can now be made by comparing the adjusted binary rates.

Payments on the binary rate will be made only for achieving statistically significant reductions in reoffending compared to the 2011 baseline reoffending rate. Deductions will be applied for statistically significant increases. We cannot say which CRCs have met their frequency rate targets from a single quarterly cohort as frequency rate targets are based on annual cohorts only.

Commentary within this bulletin on proven reoffending rates for offenders managed by the NPS is based on comparisons against the October to December 2015 offender cohort, i.e. the first cohort for which reoffending rates were measured since the start of Transforming Rehabilitation.[footnote 15]

It remains the case, however, that comparisons cannot be made between CRCs and the NPS due to differences in the offenders being managed.

4.1 Community Rehabilitation Companies

April to June 2019

  1. Twenty of the 21 CRCs in the April to June 2019 cohort will receive a payment for achieving statistically significant reductions in the adjusted binary reoffending rate when compared to the 2011 baseline reoffending rates.

  2. None of the CRCs in the April to June 2019 cohort saw a statistically significant increase in the adjusted binary reoffending rate when compared to the 2011 baseline reoffending rates.

  3. One CRC (Derbyshire, Leicestershire, Nottinghamshire & Rutland) in the April to June 2019 cohort will not receive a payment or deduction on the adjusted binary reoffending rate.

July to September 2019

  1. Seventeen of the 21 CRCs in the July to September 2019 cohort will receive a payment for achieving statistically significant reductions in the adjusted binary reoffending rate when compared to the 2011 baseline reoffending rates.

  2. None of the CRCs in the July to September 2019 cohort saw a statistically significant increase in the adjusted binary reoffending rate when compared to the 2011 baseline reoffending rates.

  3. The remaining four CRCs in the July to September 2019 cohort will not receive a payment or deduction on the adjusted binary reoffending rate.

Figure 1: Final adjusted binary rates for the April to June 2019 Payment by Results offender cohorts, by CRC (Source: Table A2, Final proven reoffending statistics for CRCs and the NPS, April to June 2019 and July to September 2019, England and Wales)

Figure 1: Final adjusted binary rates for the April to June 2019 Payment by Results offender cohorts, by CRC (Source: Table A2, Final proven reoffending statistics for CRCs and the NPS, April to June 2019 and July to September 2019, England and Wales)

Figure 2: Final adjusted binary rates for the July to September 2019 Payment by Results offender cohorts, by CRC (Source: Table A1, Final proven reoffending statistics for CRCs and the NPS, April to June 2019 and July to September 2019, England and Wales)

Figure 2: Final adjusted binary rates for the July to September 2019 Payment by Results offender cohorts, by CRC (Source: Table A1, Final proven reoffending statistics for CRCs and the NPS, April to June 2019 and July to September 2019, England and Wales)

Figure 3: Number of CRCs in the payment, non-payment and deduction regions in each final cohort for the binary measure (Source: Tables A1 to A14, Final proven reoffending statistics for CRCs and the NPS, April to June 2019 and July to September 2019, England and Wales)[footnote 16]

Figure 3: Number of CRCs in the payment, non-payment and deduction regions in each final cohort for the binary measure (Source: Tables A1 to A16)

4.2 National Probation Service

April to June 2019

In April to June 2019, the overall proven reoffending rate for those managed by the NPS was 35.7%, representing a 1.8 percentage point decrease compared to October to December 2015. Specifically, five NPS regions saw reductions in the binary rate, while the remaining two (NPS North East and NPS Wales) saw increases of 1.6 and 0.8 percentage points, respectively.

The overall frequency rate increased by 3.4% over the same period to stand at 4.1 reoffences per reoffender in April to June 2019. Two NPS regions (NPS North East and NPS North West) saw decreases, while the remaining five saw increases that ranged from 5.5% (NPS London) to 10.9% (NPS South West and South Central).

July to September 2019

In July to September 2019, the overall proven reoffending rate for those managed by the NPS was 34.7%, representing a 2.8 percentage point decrease compared to October to December 2015. Specifically, five NPS regions saw reductions in the binary rate, while the remaining two (NPS North East and NPS Wales) saw increases of less than half a percentage point and 1.4 percentage points, respectively. Furthermore, to date, the binary rate for only one NPS region (NPS Midlands) has consistently for each offender cohort period remained below the binary rate observed in October to December 2015.

The overall frequency rate decreased by 0.3% over the same period to stand at 4.0 reoffences per reoffender in July to September 2019. This represents the first time the overall frequency rate for an offender cohort has fallen below the rate observed in October to December 2015. Within this, three NPS regions (NPS North East, NPS North West, and NPS Wales) saw decreases, while the remaining four saw increases that ranged from 0.2% (NPS South West and South Central) to 5.3% (NPS Midlands).

5. Changes to the CRC contracts and implications for the final results

Adjustment to the binary result

  1. The data source for offender starts in each PbR cohort changed between the procurement process for CRC contracts and the measurement of outcomes for the first PbR cohort: moving from pNOMIS (prison releases) and Form 20 (community order / suspended sentence starts) to nDelius (the case management system for probation).

  2. The MoJ explored the reoffending results and found a difference in the overall binary reoffending measure resulting from the change in the data source.[footnote 17] Further analysis found this would have had a subsequent impact on the PbR mechanism, i.e. the ‘adjusted’ binary rate that incorporates OGRS4/G adjustments.

  3. Consequently, the MoJ decided to make an adjustment to the OGRS4/G-adjusted binary reoffending rate for all CRCs. The adjustment is a reduction in the binary reoffending rate of 0.44 percentage points. Further information on the data source adjustment and the analysis is available in the published technical note.[footnote 18]

Adjustment to the frequency result

  1. In July 2018, the MoJ launched a public consultation about the future of probation services.[footnote 19] In order to stabilise probation delivery in the immediate term, the MoJ announced an adjustment to the baseline year against which performance on the frequency of reoffending is compared. This was to better reflect the performance of providers since contracts began.

  2. As a result, all CRCs are now compared against a 2015/16 frequency baseline, with the exception of Merseyside CRC, which has retained its 2011 baseline.

Both the adjustment to the frequency and binary measures were applied retrospectively and revised results for cohorts October to December 2015 through to July to September 2016 were published in October 2018.

6. Further information

Final results presented in this publication are based on a one-year proven reoffending rate. Upcoming publications of final results are listed in the following table:

Cohort Published in
October to December 2019 October 2021
January to March 2020, and 2019/20 January 2022
April to June 2020 April 2022
July to September 2020 July 2022

6.1 Accompanying files

As well as this bulletin, the following products are published as part of this release:

  • A technical document providing detail on how reoffending is measured, information on how the data is collected and processed, and background information on the Transforming Rehabilitation reforms.

  • A data quality statement which outlines our policies for producing quality statistical outputs and the information provided to maintain our users’ understanding and trust.

  • A set of tables providing final proven reoffending data for the CRCs and NPS.

  • A data tool providing final proven reoffending data for the CRCs and NPS, by age group and gender.

6.2 Future publications

Our statisticians regularly review the content of publications. Development of new and improved statistical outputs is usually dependent on reallocating existing resources. As part of our continual review and prioritisation, we welcome user feedback on existing outputs including content, breadth, frequency and methodology.

6.3 Contact

Press enquiries should be directed to the Ministry of Justice press office:
    Tel: 020 3334 3536
    Email: newsdesk@justice.gsi.gov.uk

Other enquiries and feedback on these statistics should be directed to the Data and Evidence as a Service division of the Ministry of Justice:
    Liz Whiting, Head of Reducing Reoffending and Probation Data and Statistics Team
    Ministry of Justice, 7th Floor, 102 Petty France, London, SW1H 9AJ
    Email: statistics.enquiries@justice.gsi.gov.uk

Next update: 28 October 2021
URL: www.gov.uk/government/collections/payment-by-results-statistics

© Crown copyright
Produced by the Ministry of Justice
Alternative formats are available on request from statistics.enquiries@justice.gsi.gov.uk

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/crimeandjustice/bulletins/crimeinenglandandwales/yearendingjune2020#trends-in-police-recorded-crime

  1. A full description of the measure of reoffending is provided in the guide to proven reoffending statistics, which is available at: www.gov.uk/government/statistics/payment-by-results-statistics-october-2015-to-september-2020 ↩

  2. www.gov.uk/government/statistics/criminal-court-statistics-quarterly-january-to-march-2021 ↩

  3. The April to June 2020 figures and trends in police recorded crime can be found at: ↩

  4. The reoffending follow-up and waiting periods for “pre-pandemic” offender cohorts do not coincide with the COVID-19 lockdown measures. ↩

  5. Including the phased reopening of the courts. ↩

  6. Voluntary ex ante transparency (VEAT) notices for all CRCs were published in July and August 2018. Please see example: https://ted.europa.eu/udl?uri=TED:NOTICE:335172-2018:TEXT:EN:HTML&src=0 ↩

  7. All CRCs are now compared against a 2015/16 frequency baseline, with the exception of Merseyside CRC, which has retained its 2011 baseline. ↩

  8. Further information on the Offender Group Reconviction Scale 4/G can be found in the guide to proven reoffending statistics, which is available at: www.gov.uk/government/statistics/payment-by-results-statistics-october-2015-to-september-2020 ↩

  9. The 2011 PbR baselines and associated methodology documents are available at: www.gov.uk/government/collections/transforming-rehabilitation ↩

  10. www.gov.uk/government/publications/changes-to-community-rehabilitation-companies-contracts ↩

  11. https://consult.justice.gov.uk/hm-prisons-and-probation/strengthening-probation-building-confidence ↩

  12. www.gov.uk/government/statistics/payment-by-results-statistics-october-2015-to-december-2017 ↩

  13. www.gov.uk/government/statistics/payment-by-results-statistics-october-2015-to-september-2020 ↩

  14. A full description of the measure of reoffending is provided in the guide to proven reoffending statistics, which is available at: www.gov.uk/government/statistics/payment-by-results-statistics-october-2015-to-september-2020 ↩

  15. www.gov.uk/government/collections/transforming-rehabilitation ↩

  16. Two contract variations associated with the binary and frequency measures of reoffending were agreed with CRCs in 2018. ↩

  17. www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/658380/how-the-measure-of-reoffending-has-changed-and-the-effect-of-these-changes.pdf ↩

  18. www.gov.uk/government/publications/changes-to-community-rehabilitation-companies-contracts ↩

  19. https://consult.justice.gov.uk/hm-prisons-and-probation/strengthening-probation-building-confidence/ ↩

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