Official Statistics

Final proven reoffending statistics for Community Rehabilitation Companies and the National Probation Service, October to December 2020

Published 27 October 2022

Applies to England and Wales

© Crown copyright 2022

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This publication is available at https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/payment-by-results-statistics-october-to-december-2021/final-proven-reoffending-statistics-for-community-rehabilitation-companies-and-the-national-probation-service-october-to-december-2020

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1. Main points

This publication provides the final proven reoffending results for the October to December 2020 offender cohorts managed by Community Rehabilitation Companies (CRC) and the National Probation Service (NPS). Although CRC contracts ended and a new unified model[footnote 1] for Probation Services was introduced in England and Wales at the end of June 2021, reporting of the reoffending results will continue until the measurement period of proven reoffending for all offender cohorts managed by the CRCs and the NPS has come to an end; this is due to the time lags inherent in the proven reoffending measure. Additionally, the CRC contract payment mechanism ceased to be officially implemented for offenders supervised by CRCs from 1 December 2020 onwards, however the full October to December 2020 cohort has been presented here for completeness. For the reasons mentioned above this will be the last PbR publication in this format with reoffending by probation region being presented in the proven reoffending publication in the future.

This latest offender cohort period coincides with the second lockdown imposed due to the COVID-19 pandemic; furthermore, the associated reoffending follow-up period for this cohort overlaps with the third national lockdown. As a result, volatility continues to be seen in the reoffending figures.
October to December 2020  
All CRCs achieved significant reductions in the binary rate All of the 20 CRCs managing offenders in the October to December 2020 cohort achieved statistically significant reductions in the adjusted binary rate (i.e. the proportion of offenders who reoffend) when compared to the 2011 baseline.
Decrease in the overall NPS binary rate The overall binary rate for offenders managed by the NPS was 31.3%, representing a 6.2 percentage point decrease compared to October to December 2015.
Increase in the overall NPS frequency rate The overall frequency rate for offenders managed by the NPS increased by 0.7% to 3.99 reoffences per reoffender compared to October to December 2015.

2. Statistician’s comment

“This report covers final proven reoffending results for the October to December 2020 offender cohorts managed by CRCs and the NPS. A proven reoffence is measured over a one-year follow-up period and a further six-month waiting period to allow the offence to be proven in court.[footnote 2]

These latest proven reoffending figures, as well as those for other recent offender cohorts, highlight the continued volatility as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.

This latest offender cohort coincides continued recovery of the courts following the first lockdown. As the courts reopened (from late May 2020 onwards), the number of criminal cases processed increased; which followed sharp reductions during the period of court closures between April to June 2020.[footnote 3]

Furthermore, this cohort period also overlaps with the second national lockdown, and the reoffending follow-up period also overlaps with the third national lockdown.[footnote 4] While there were no court closures during these two lockdown periods, police recorded crime data have shown overall reductions in the reporting and recording of many crime types during periods of lockdown.[footnote 5] Consequently, the number of offenders and reoffenders for the October to December 2020 cohort increased compared to July to September 2020, although they were still lower than previous quarters.

All 20 CRCs[footnote 6] managing offenders in the October to December 2020 cohort achieved statistically significant reductions in the adjusted binary reoffending rate when compared to the 2011 baseline reoffending rates. It should be noted that the CRC contract payment mechanism ceased to be officially implemented for offenders supervised by CRCs from 1 December 2020 onwards, however the full October to December 2020 cohort has been presented here for completeness.

The overall binary reoffending rate for the October to December cohort of offenders managed by the NPS was 31.3%, representing a 6.2 percentage point decrease compared to October to December 2015.”

3. Introduction

This publication provides the final proven reoffending results for the October to December 2020 offender cohorts managed by CRCs. Although CRC contracts ended and a new unified model[footnote 7] for Probation Services was introduced in England and Wales at the end of June 2021, reporting of the reoffending results will continue until the measurement period of proven reoffending for all offender cohorts managed by the CRCs and the NPS has come to an end; this is due to the time lags inherent in the proven reoffending measure. However, it is worth noting that the reoffending follow-up and waiting periods associated with the October to December 2020 offender cohort partly overlap with the period with the ending of CRC contracts and the introduction of the unified model.

The results presented in this bulletin in relation to offenders managed by CRCs will focus on comparison against the baseline period, rather than any impact on financial implications.

Results also reflect the changes to the CRC contracts,[footnote 8] announced in 2018, which resulted in an adjustment to the binary measure and a change to the frequency baseline[footnote 9] against which CRCs are compared.

The one-year proven reoffending measures used to assess CRC performance are:

  • the binary rate (proportion of offenders who reoffend); and
  • the frequency rate (the average number of reoffences per reoffender)

The binary rate for each CRC is subject to an adjustment for changes in the case mix of offenders being supervised, using the Offender Group Reconviction Scale (OGRS), version 4/G,[footnote 10]; this was to allow performance to be assessed against the baseline year of 2011.[footnote 11] This is referred to as the OGRS4/G-adjusted binary reoffending rate.

The publication also includes final results for the NPS. Under the programme of probation reforms, 12 probation areas across England and Wales were introduced. This includes 11 new probation areas phased in across England from spring 2020, with new arrangements having already been implemented in Wales in December 2019 and remaining unchanged since then. As a result, the regional breakdowns of proven reoffending results for the October to December 2020 cohort of offenders managed by the NPS presented in the accompanying table B1 straddle both the old and new NPS structures. Although comparisons with previous periods based on aggregate results are still possible, regional comparisons to previous quarters are not.

To note, final results for the NPS have not changed as a result of CRC contract variations since they are not compared against a baseline threshold in the same way.

3.1 Contract variation

Under contract variations, the following changes have been made to the binary and frequency measures, for assessing CRC performance:

  1. An additional adjustment has been made to the OGRS4/G-adjusted binary reoffending rate to account for a change in the data source in October 2015, as explained in the published technical note.[footnote 12]

  2. As announced in the ‘Strengthening probation, building confidence’ consultation document,[footnote 13] the baseline year, against which CRC performance on the frequency of reoffending is compared, changed. All CRCs are now compared against a 2015/16 baseline, with the exception of Merseyside CRC, which has retained the 2011 baseline.

Both adjustments were applied retrospectively to all final CRC cohorts in the October 2018 bulletin.[footnote 14]

To aid the user, and in the interests of transparency, the accompanying tables include the actual binary rates before any adjustments alongside the OGRS4/G-adjusted binary rates and 2018 contract-adjusted binary rates.

From this point forward, the 2018 contract-adjusted binary rate will be referred to as the adjusted binary rate.

For technical detail on how proven reoffending is measured, please refer to the accompanying guide to proven reoffending statistics.[footnote 15]

4. Final results

Final results are based on a cohort of offenders who were managed by CRCs in the community under Payment by Results (PbR) arrangements, and by the NPS. All offenders have been subject to the full one-year follow-up period and the additional six-month waiting period as detailed in the guide to proven reoffending statistics.[footnote 16]

Reporting of proven reoffending rates for offenders who were managed by CRCs is based on comparisons with 2011 baseline reoffending rates. Comparisons of performance between different CRCs and previous cohorts can be made by comparing the adjusted binary rates. Commentary on overall proven reoffending rates for offenders who were managed by the NPS is based on comparisons against the October to December 2015 offender cohort, i.e. the first cohort for which reoffending rates were measured since the start of Transforming Rehabilitation.[footnote 17] Comparisons cannot be made between CRCs and the NPS due to differences in the offenders being managed.

4.1 October to December 2020 offender cohorts

This latest offender cohort coincides with the phased reopening of the courts following the first lockdown. As the courts reopened (from late May 2020), the number of criminal cases processed increased; this follows the sharp reductions during the period of court closures between April to June 2020.[footnote 18]

However, this cohort period also overlaps, in part, with the second national lockdown, and the reoffending follow-up period also overlaps with the third national lockdown. While there were no court closures during these two lockdown periods, police recorded crime data have shown overall reductions in the reporting and recording of many crime types during periods of lockdown.

As a whole, the number of offenders and reoffenders for the October to December 2020 cohort increased by 9.9% compared to the previous quarter. More specifically, across CRCs, the change in the cohort size since July to September 2020 has ranged from an increase of 20.5% for Humberside, Lincolnshire & North Yorkshire to a decrease of 10.5% for Northumbria. Similarly, the overall number of reoffenders increased by 5.4%, ranging from an increase of 27.5% for Norfolk & Suffolk to a decrease of 9.5% for Cumbria & Lancashire. However, volumes of offenders and reoffenders were still, in general, lower than equivalent figures seen in cohorts prior to April to June 2020 (excludes NPS Wales due to the early transition of offenders from CRC supervision during the time series).

In terms of the adjusted binary rate, all 20 CRCs[footnote 19] achieved statistically significant reductions for the October to December 2020 cohort when compared to the 2011 baseline reoffending rates (Figure 1).

Figure 1: Final adjusted binary rates for the October to December 2020 offender cohorts, by CRC (Source: Table A1, Final proven reoffending statistics for CRCs and the NPS, October to December 2020, England and Wales)[footnote 20]

Figure 1: Final adjusted binary rates for the October to December 2020 offender cohorts, by CRC (Source: Table A1, Final proven reoffending statistics for CRCs and the NPS, October to December 2020, England and Wales)

The overall binary reoffending rate for the October to December cohort of offenders managed by the NPS was 31.3%, representing a 6.2 percentage point decrease compared to October to December 2015. The overall frequency rate for this offender cohort increased by 0.7% to 3.99 reoffences per reoffender compared to October to December 2015.

5. Further information

Final results presented in this publication are based on a one-year proven reoffending rate. Results for the January to March 2021 cohort will be published in January 2023 under the Proven Reoffending publication collection.

5.1 Accompanying files

As well as this bulletin, the following products are published as part of this release:

  • A technical document providing detail on how reoffending is measured, information on how the data is collected and processed, and background information on the Transforming Rehabilitation reforms.

  • A data quality statement which outlines our policies for producing quality statistical outputs and the information provided to maintain our users’ understanding and trust.

  • A set of tables providing final proven reoffending data for the CRCs and NPS.

  • A data tool providing final proven reoffending data for the CRCs and NPS, by age group and gender.

5.2 Future publications

Our statisticians regularly review the content of publications. Development of new and improved statistical outputs is usually dependent on reallocating existing resources. As part of our continual review and prioritisation, we welcome user feedback on existing outputs including content, breadth, frequency and methodology.

Please note this is the last publication of the PbR bulletin. Future tables relating to PbR cohorts will be published in the proven reoffending publication.[footnote 21]

5.3 Contact

Press enquiries should be directed to the Ministry of Justice press office:
    Tel: 020 3334 3536
    Email: newsdesk@justice.gsi.gov.uk

Other enquiries and feedback on these statistics should be directed to the Data and Evidence as a Service division of the Ministry of Justice:
    Liz Whiting, Head of Reducing Reoffending and Probation Data and Statistics Team
    Ministry of Justice, 10th Floor, 102 Petty France, London, SW1H 9AJ
    Email: statistics.enquiries@justice.gsi.gov.uk

Next update: 26 January 2022
URL: www.gov.uk/government/collections/proven-reoffending-statistics

© Crown copyright
Produced by the Ministry of Justice
Alternative formats are available on request from statistics.enquiries@justice.gsi.gov.uk

  1. Under the new model, all sentence management for low, medium and high-risk offenders is carried out by the Probation Service rather than contracted providers. Furthermore, to note, offender management transitioned earlier from Wales CRC to the unified model area of NPS Wales in December 2019. ↩

  2. A full description of the measure of reoffending is provided in the guide to proven reoffending statistics, which is available at: www.gov.uk/government/statistics/payment-by-results-statistics-october-2015-to-december-2021 ↩

  3. For details on trends in criminal court activity, please refer to www.gov.uk/government/collections/criminal-court-statistics ↩

  4. The first national lockdown was implemented on 23 March 2020 and transitioned to phased reopening until August 2020 (including a limited number of jury trials resuming from 18 May 2020). The second national lockdown was implemented on 5 November 2020 and returned to a three-tier restriction system from 2 December 2020. The third national lockdown was implemented on 6 January 2021 and transitioned to phased reopening until June 2021. ↩

  5. Police recorded crime figures (including monthly trends) can be found at: www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/crimeandjustice ↩

  6. Note that in this and future quarterly cohorts, there will be no results for Wales CRC as offender management transferred to NPS Wales in December 2019. ↩

  7. Under the new model, all sentence management for low, medium and high-risk offenders is carried out by the Probation Service rather than contracted providers. Furthermore, to note, offender management transitioned earlier from Wales CRC to the unified model area of NPS Wales in December 2019. For further details on the changes to probation services, refer to https://www.gov.uk/guidance/strengthening-probation-building-confidence ↩

  8. Voluntary ex ante transparency (VEAT) notices for all CRCs were published in July and August 2018. Please see example: https://ted.europa.eu/udl?uri=TED:NOTICE:335172-2018:TEXT:EN:HTML&src=0 ↩

  9. All CRCs are now compared against a 2015/16 frequency baseline, with the exception of Merseyside CRC, which has retained its 2011 baseline. Refer to the accompanying technical guide for further information, along with a more detailed explanation on how proven reoffending is measured more generally. ↩

  10. Further information on the Offender Group Reconviction Scale 4/G can be found in the guide to proven reoffending statistics, which is available at: www.gov.uk/government/statistics/payment-by-results-statistics-october-2015-to-december-2021 ↩

  11. The 2011 PbR baselines and associated methodology documents are available at: www.gov.uk/government/collections/transforming-rehabilitation ↩

  12. www.gov.uk/government/publications/changes-to-community-rehabilitation-companies-contracts ↩

  13. https://consult.justice.gov.uk/hm-prisons-and-probation/strengthening-probation-building-confidence ↩

  14. www.gov.uk/government/statistics/payment-by-results-statistics-october-2015-to-december-2017 ↩

  15. www.gov.uk/government/statistics/payment-by-results-statistics-october-2015-to-december-2021 ↩

  16. A full description of the measure of reoffending is provided in the guide to proven reoffending statistics, which is available at: www.gov.uk/government/statistics/payment-by-results-statistics-october-2015-to-december-2021 ↩

  17. www.gov.uk/government/collections/transforming-rehabilitation ↩

  18. For details on trends in criminal court activity, please refer to www.gov.uk/government/collections/criminal-court-statistics ↩

  19. Note that in this and future quarterly cohorts, there will be no results for Wales CRC as offender management transferred to NPS Wales in December 2019. ↩

  20. There are no results for Wales CRC as, under the Probation Reform Programme, offender management transferred to NPS Wales in December 2019. ↩

  21. www.gov.uk/government/collections/proven-reoffending-statistics ↩

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