Official Statistics

Quality Report: VAT Bulletin

Updated 7 June 2021

1. Introduction

This quality report relates to the Value Added Tax (VAT) Bulletin National Statistics. The purpose is to provide users with information about the quality of the outputs as set out by the Code of Practice for Official Statistics.

The VAT Bulletin has been published quarterly since October 2016 and on GOV.UK since October 2019.

Archive versions of the VAT Bulletin published on GOV.UK after October 2019 are no longer hosted on GOV.UK and are instead available via the UK Government Web Archive, from the National Archives.

Archive versions of the Alcohol Bulletin published between 2008 and October 2019 are found on the UK Trade Info website.

The bulletin contains statistics on quarterly VAT receipts and trader population data. Historically, Total VAT is broken down by net Home VAT and Import VAT. Home VAT is broken down by payments and repayments and the VAT trader population is reported as new registrations, de-registrations and the live trader population.

Accompanying these statistics is commentary intended to explain trends to users and how these trends interact with external events, VAT duty rates and other VAT policies in the UK.

Receipts data and trader populations figures are included up to the latest full month before the bulletin release.

The bulletin is produced by analysts in the Knowledge Analysis and Intelligence (KAI) directorate of HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC). Thorough quality assurance (QA) procedures are followed for each bulletin before it is signed off by senior management, then sent to the HMRC GOV.UK communications team for publication.

2. Relevance

The VAT Bulletin contains data on historical receipts, trader populations, and duty rates of VAT in the UK. The bulletin makes it clear that it contains information on VAT which has been paid.

The VAT Bulletin is a National Statistics publication and contains a commentary section on recent patterns in Net Home VAT, Import VAT and Total VAT receipts over the last 10 financial years (including the current year). It also contains a commentary section on trends in receipts of Net Home VAT and Import VAT receipts, and on VAT payments and repayments for this year and the 2 previous financial years.

There is also a section on Quarterly VAT registrations and de-registrations over the last 10 financial years as well as Live VAT trader population over the last 10 financial years.

The commentary and content of the bulletin are regularly reviewed to ensure they remain relevant to user needs.

3. Accuracy and reliability

The data used to produce these publications is exhaustive and covers all VAT under UK jurisdiction which is subject to duty. This means that data on receipts refers to all VAT paid legally, with the exception of VAT exempt products and services, which are not counted for this purpose as “by definition” duty is not paid on these.

Deferments and late returns can influence the data used for the publications. For that reason, the last 3 months of data at any given time are labelled as ‘provisional’, although revisions tend to be minor. Where there are revisions they are marked as ‘revised’, and information is given as to the reasons and scale of the revisions if appropriate.

4. Timeliness and punctuality

The bulletin is published one month after the end of the reporting period for receipts. That is, the bulletin relating to VAT duty received in January is published at the end of February. The bulletin takes around one week to produce, with the data not being available until after the middle of the month. The remaining time is spent quality assuring the information in the bulletin.

In line with the Code of Practice for Official Statistics, these statistics are pre-announced on GOV.UK.

HMRC also publishes an annual publication plan on GOV.UK.

There have been no incidents of late publication of the bulletin since the previous VAT Bulletin Quality Report was produced in 2013 which is available through the UK Government Web Archive from the National Archive.

5. Accessibility and clarity

The data is publicly available within the VAT Bulletin and is published at 9.30 am on the pre-announced date of release.

The VAT Bulletin commentary is published in accessible Hypertext Markup Language (HTML) format, as generated within internal UK government HTML Markdown software. The VAT Bulletin data tables which accompany the commentary are published in accessible Open Document Spreadsheet (ODS) format.

Accompanying the bulletin is a background and references document which includes:

• definitions for VAT types

• details on how VAT duties are levied and paid

• methodology for producing VAT duties statistics

• statistical quality information, including HMRC’s rounding policy

• hyperlinks to relevant pages where bulletin users can find more information

There is also an historic VAT duty rates document.

Both historic duty rates and background and references are published in HTML format.

Following major changes in January 2021, substantial formatting changes were made to the VAT Bulletin to ensure alignment with accessibility regulations for digital content from public bodies as legislated within the Public Sector Bodies (Websites and Mobile Applications) (No. 2) Accessibility Regulations 2018.

This reformatting of the VAT Bulletin formed part of HMRC’s wider accessible documents policy. Changes made to the VAT Bulletin included:

• replacement of Portable Document Format (PDF) files previously used for statistics commentary with HTML documents for the same purpose

• migration of all VAT duties background, references and rates information from Microsoft Excel tables to HTML documents

• migration of data tables from Microsoft Excel to ODS format

• simplification of language used to avoid jargon and clear explanations used to describe all non-decorative features

An accessibility report was first produced to identify required format changes. The overriding aim of this reformat was to improve how perceivable, operable, understandable and robust the VAT Bulletin is for all users, in line with the Web Content Accessibility Guidelines (WCAG 2.1) design principles for accessibility.

6. Coherence and comparability

By definition, there are no other sources that allow a comparison with the data in the bulletin (since HMRC is the only organisation which collects and estimates duty paid).

The data used to compile the VAT Bulletin comes from several sources:

• total VAT is made up of Home VAT and Import VAT, all of Home VAT is taken from a combination of the Enterprise Tax Management Platform (ETMP) and HMRC’s daily banking figures

• Import VAT is taken from the Customs and Excise Core Accounting System (CECAS)

• VAT trader population is sourced from data provided by Business Tax and Customs on a monthly basis

Comparability over time of duty rates and receipts at constant prices is reliant upon the deflator used. HMRC uses the Inflation and price indices series published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), and values are therefore subject to any biases this series might present.

Data within the bulletin relates to the UK as a whole and cannot be disaggregated into lower geographical breakdowns, and therefore are not affected by changes in geographies.

7. Trade-offs between output quality components

Since the data relates to all VAT on which VAT duty is paid to HMRC, in general there have been no trade-offs which have necessitated balancing different aspects of quality.

8. Assessment of user needs and perceptions

The demand for the VAT Bulletin is measured by the number of unique page views which represents the number of visits during which the page was viewed at least once. Within the financial year ending in 2021, there were 1,687 unique page views.

Over time the VAT Bulletin has evolved as a result of information found out through consultations and surveys:

• there was a user engagement survey in 2010 which led to some changes to the bulletin (for example consolidating into one bulletin and including historical data)

• following this and the 2012 UKSA report, further changes were made to the bulletin, which included added commentary, graphs and background information

• in 2016, the frequency of the bulletin was then altered from monthly to quarterly as a result of a consultation

Following the consultation on the reduction and consolidation of HMRC statistics publications, which ran between 8 February 2021 and 12 March 2021, the final publication of this bulletin will be in July 2021. From Autumn 2021 the contents of this bulletin will be provided within the Annual VAT statistics.

9. Performance, cost and respondent burden

The quarterly update to the Bulletin takes up to 4 working days in total for the main analyst to complete and receive QA from other analysts, the team leader, and the person signing off the release. The annual cost, therefore, is around 16 days a year (4 days per bulletin completed 4 times a year).

There is no respondent burden since the data is taken from administrative sources which are used by taxpayers to make their usual returns to HMRC.

10. Confidentiality, transparency and security

Before going live, the bulletin is classified as pre-released National Statistics, and is therefore subject to a restricted protective marking when referred to in email correspondence and is subject to the Code of Practice for Official Statistics, which is strictly enforced.