Official Statistics

Response

Published 24 November 2017

The UK House Price Index (UK HPI) was introduced in June 2016, as a collaborative statistical output. It is published by HM Land Registry, on GOV.UK on behalf of the Working Group that consists of HM Land Registry, the Office for National Statistics, Registers of Scotland and Land and Property Services Northern Ireland.

On 23 November 2017, Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR) published details of the second phase of their assessment that considered whether the UK HPI could be awarded National Statistics status. They recommend that National Statistics status can be awarded when 8 specific requirements are addressed. Evidence must be provided by March 2018.

The 8 requirements below are accompanied by the Working Group’s response. This provides high-level insight into how each requirement will be addressed and future plans. Progress in many of these areas is already underway.

Requirement 1

HM Land Registry and partners should explore with key stakeholders what contextual information and insight they want to feature in the UK HPI statistics reports and improve the presentation of these statistics reports to provide such insight.

Response 1

Meetings with some key stakeholders has already begun and these meetings will be formalised over the coming months. Going forward, the Working Group will agree with stakeholders preferred methods of providing feedback. The team has also established membership of the Wider Government Housing Forum and will be representing the UK HPI at stakeholder events.

Details of other user engagement activities are covered in requirement 4.

Requirement 2

HM Land Registry and partners should:

• continue to monitor how users access the latest statistics and users’ feedback about the UK HPI’s overall accessibility

• consider how it can best improve accessibility if confusion persists

Response 2

The Working Group acknowledge the comment on accessibility and have agreed that the role of GOV.UK will be strengthened going forward. The team will look to reduce duplication of detailed statistical reporting, while still meeting the needs of a range of audiences who reach the main reports from multiple entry points.

An online survey will ask users to nominate their preferred route to the index and assess their awareness of the supporting data and tools.

A new version of the online search tool will be launched shortly, based on user feedback. The tool will include all available data and reintroduce the comparison functionality for up to 5 locations, enhancing the user experience.

Requirement 3

Land and Property Services Northern Ireland should publish Northern Ireland House Price Indices (NI HPI) in such a way that key information published in historic reports is easily accessible to users, by delivering a level of openness that meets users’ needs and is in line with established government standards.

Response 3

All historic data published as part of the NI House Price Index is available on GOV.UK as part of the archived downloadable data. Land & Property Services Northern Ireland (LPS) publish a full back series of statistics each quarter which replace the series published in previous reports. Previous reports are not archived as this would cause confusion, but it is recognised that some users will want to refer to historic reports. LPS will add messages to their website which makes it clear that these reports are available on request.

LPS will also publish a series of revisions tables to highlight differences in statistics published in previous reports and those in the current time series. The economic timeline which accompanies the current quarterly statistics will be expanded to display commentary on the full time series and will be available alongside other detailed statistics.

Requirement 4

HM Land Registry and partners should:

• clearly demonstrate how they have considered these stakeholder views in its presentation of the UK HPI and in its future development plans for the statistics

• continue to promote its recently established LinkedIn Forum and demonstrate how it will use feedback from this Forum to inform its development plans

Response 4

The Working Group plan to make it easier for UK HPI users to feedback and interact with the team by:

• making contact details more visible

• introducing more face to face user events

• using online surveys to obtain feedback

• continuing to promote the LinkedIn forum as a place to ask questions, hear about the latest enhancements and encourage discussions among UK HPI producers and users

With a range of users and contact points, we receive a lot of feedback. We plan to create a central log to capture this insight and review it monthly to help identify any future enhancements, issues or opportunities to update our guidance. Monthly reviews will enable regular blogs and articles to be tailored to meet users’ requirements.

In February 2018, we plan to host a series of user events in various locations around the UK.

Requirement 5

Taking into account users’ views, HM Land Registry and partners should:

• develop methods that enable production of the UK HPI with a level of revisions that commands user confidence

• publish transparent information about the methods changes, including the temporary adjustment factor, and comprehensively quantify their impact, and supporting analyses to aid users’ interpretation

• publish more-transparent information about the operational backlog in HM Land Registry including quantifying the impact of this on the UK HPI and information about when this backlog is likely to be resolved

• embed within their production process practices for monitoring revisions and appropriate escalation procedures to identify and resolve any future issues

Response 5

Significant steps have already been taken to address this area, but the Working Group recognise that more can be done. Work already undertaken includes the extension of our revisions policy from two months to twelve months. The revisions tables have also been published to improve transparency. Commentary has also been added to individual charts within the monthly reports. We will continue to review and highlight any major revisions and/or points of interest each month.

HM Land Registry is working to complete all new title applications within 25 working days and aims to hit this target by March 2018. However, we are subject to the timescales of the conveyancing process and the delays that can occur between the sale of a property and the submission of an application for registration, which typically ranges from two weeks to two months. Occasionally the interval between sale and registration is longer than two months; this is particularly true of transactions that require the creation of a new register, such as new build properties. Provisional (first) estimates for the UK HPI are calculated on approximately 40% of the transactions that will ultimately get registered. As more data is registered after the event, our second and third estimates are updated to reflect the changes, these estimates represent 80% to 90% of all registered transactions.

Requirement 6

Taking into account users’ views, HM Land Registry and partners should continue to update and rationalise their published information about methods used to produce the UK HPI and its quality, to reflect the recommendations from the 2016 peer review of methods; and planned changes to the methods.

Response 6

During the life of the UK HPI, there have been numerous documents published that look to provide clear and transparent information on the data and methodologies. The Working Group accept that there is an opportunity to streamline this information and bring it up to date. The team will review these documents regularly and create editions of published documentation, so users can clearly identify the latest information.

Requirement 7

HM Land Registry and partners should:

• publish prominent, accessible information about their quality assurance of data used to produce the UK HPI and NI HPI

• in publishing this information, include clear guidance about the strengths and limitation of each source and the reliance users can place of the statistics

• continue to engage with HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) to seek appropriate assurances about its Stamp Duty Land Tax data used to produce house price estimates for Northern Ireland, presented in both the NI HPI and the UK HPI

Response 7

The Working Group will publish its quality assurance documentation at the end of November on GOV.UK. This will be accompanied by a high-level overview document. Information about planned UK HPI work and areas for enhancement will be documented.

LPS have sought to engage with HMRC to understand the quality of the data collected by HMRC through Stamp Duty Land Tax returns, which is supplied to LPS for maintenance of the NI Valuation List and to produce aggregate statistical information including house price estimates.Progress has been slow and so the quality assessment of Stamp Duty Land Tax data from HMRC is not yet complete and details will be made available once the assessment is finalised.

Requirement 8

HM Land Registry and partners should:

• reflect on how their arrangements can be strengthened to better anticipate and effectively address methods and data issues, such as the ongoing issue relating to revisions

• manage the development of the UK HPI, so that they are well placed to:

  • clearly set the future strategic direction for the statistics
  • clarify and communicate publicly the ongoing statistical work programme

This will ensure that the UK HPI continues to evolve to meet users’ needs.

Response 8

The Working Group that creates and publishes the UK HPI each month is relatively unique. The four key contributors are based in different administrations within the UK, each with their own areas of responsibility. While the report reflects the positive outcomes that can be achieved through cross-government collaboration, it does look for more clarity on overall accountability and the response route for any issues that may arise.

Following conversations with the OSR, the Working Group plan to publish its Service Level Agreement (SLA). This will look to clarify the areas of responsibility and commit to a SLA with our users as to how and when we will respond to any future issue(s).

We will also be more transparent around our review points, seeking user guidance where appropriate and publishing any findings or resulting changes.