Official Statistics

Summary: Restart Scheme to September 2022

Published 15 December 2022

1. Introduction

Coronavirus (COVID-19), and the public health measures introduced in response to it had unprecedented economic impacts in the UK and globally. The impact on out of work benefit claims was immediate, with over 1 million declarations to Universal Credit (UC) alone in the first few months of the pandemic.

At the Spending Review on 25 November 2020, HM Treasury confirmed a ‘new 3-year long £2.9 billion Restart programme’ as part of the ‘Plan for Jobs’ to provide intensive and tailored support to over 1 million unemployed people to help them into sustained work. The department later reassessed the demand for the programme; it is now likely to support around 0.7 million individuals over its life, at a projected cost of around £1.7 billion.

Details of this reassessment can be found in the July 2022 Restart Scheme Accounting Officer Advice, and the December 2022 National Audit Office report on the Restart Scheme.

The initial focus for referrals was those who had been on UC in the Intensive Work Search Regime (IWSR) continuously for between 12 and 18 months, and who had moved into this regime after March 2020. From January 2022, all claimants under UC IWSR were considered after 9 months of UC, and from late April 2022 the eligibility criteria were expanded further to include claimants in receipt of income-based Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA IB).

People are referred to the scheme by Work Coaches in Jobcentre Plus offices to external organisations (providers) that work alongside Jobcentre Plus to give personalised support to participants for up to 12 months to help them to find, and remain in, employment.

Providers are paid a service fee to deliver this support. In addition, they receive a payment for each participant that achieves a job outcome. This is when, since starting on the scheme, a participant reaches either:

• a specified cumulative level of earnings called the earnings threshold

• 6 months of gainful self-employment

Providers are eligible for an outcome payment for each participant that achieves a job outcome within 18 months of starting on the scheme.

Restart has run alongside two other ‘Plan for Jobs’ schemes that were announced in July 2020 – Kickstart aimed at young people with referrals between October 2020 and March 2022 and Job Entry Targeted Support aimed at shorter duration unemployed with referrals between October 2020 and September 2022.

It also ran alongside employment support schemes that had been operating before the pandemic including the Work and Health Programme and the Intensive Personalised Employment Support scheme.

Since Restart’s launch it has operated in a changing labour market which can be briefly characterised by a reducing unemployment rate, rising employment rate (but that is below pre-pandemic levels) and high levels of vacancies. This wider context should be considered throughout this publication.

2. Main Stories

The statistics show that by the end of September 2022:

• 410,000 individuals had been referred to the programme since its launch, with 340,000 of these having started on the programme

• 92,000 of these participants have achieved first earnings from employment since starting on the scheme. Note that the majority of participants have received less than 12 months of support so far

• 39,000 participants have then achieved a job outcome. This is against a contractual expectation of 33,000 job outcomes by this point in the programme, representing a programme performance of 117%

• 31% of the 28,000 individuals who started on the programme by the end of September 2021 and have now received up to 12 months of support have achieved a job outcome so far, against a contractual expectation at this point of 19%. 50% of these 28,000 individuals have achieved first earnings from employment so far

• of the 340,000 individuals who have started on the scheme, 58% were recorded as male, and 42% recorded as female. 63% are aged between 25 and 49 years old, with 7% aged between 18 and 24 years old and 30% aged 50 years or over

3. What you need to know

Definitions

The following definitions are used in these statistics.

Participants

The Restart Scheme launched in June 2021, with first referrals from July 2021, in England and Wales and aims to provide tailored and intensive support to participants to achieve sustained work. It is aimed at those who have claimed UC continuously for at least 9 months and are currently under the IWSR. Participants may also come from those in receipt of JSA IB for at least 9 months.

Providers

The Restart scheme is delivered across England and Wales by 8 providers across 12 areas, known as Contract Package Areas (CPAs). These CPAs represent 12 geographic areas of England and Wales, with Wales as a single area (CPA 6), see map below.

Map showing CPAs in England and Wales

Number	Area	Provider
CPA 1a	West Central	Serco
CPA 1b	East Central	Jobs22
CPA 2a	North East and Humberside	Reed
CPA 2b	South and West Yorkshire Derbyshire & Nottingham	Maximus
CPA 3a	North West	G4S
CPA 3b	Greater Manchester	Ingeus
CPA 4a	South West	Seetec
CPA 4b	South Central	Fedcap
CPA 5a	Central and West London	Ingeus
CPA 5b	South and West London	Maximus
CPA 5c	Home Counties	Reed
CPA 6	Wales	Serco

Referrals

Work Coaches in Jobcentre Plus offices send details of potential participants to their provider. Before doing so, the Work Coach will consider each individual’s needs and circumstances to understand their suitability and eligibility for the scheme. This part of the participant journey is called a referral. Individuals may be referred to a provider more than once prior to starting on the scheme.

Individuals referred

Since an individual can be referred more than once, individuals referred is the number of unique individual people referred. For this value, only the individual’s first referral is counted.

Starts

A start on the programme is recorded when a Restart participant attends an initial meeting with the provider. There is a period of 40 working days from the point of referral in which the participant’s start on the scheme can be recorded by the provider. In places in this document, we will use the term ‘participant’ interchangeably with ‘start’ to aid readability.

Cohort

A group of participants who start on the Restart Scheme in the same calendar month.

First Earnings from Employment

Information on participants’ earnings are reported to the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) by HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) Real Time Earnings (RTE) data. The point at which a participant first achieves earnings from their first employment whilst on the scheme is known as the first earnings. A participant who achieves first earnings may not necessarily then go on to achieve a job outcome. Statistics on first earnings from employment do not include earnings from self-employment.

Job Outcomes

Job outcomes represent sustained employment. A provider is classed as achieving a job outcome when a participant, since starting on the scheme, reaches either:

• cumulative earnings exceeding the earnings threshold. This is the equivalent of working 16 hours per week for 26 weeks at the National Living Wage (25+) (£3,952 as of the time of this publication)

• a minimum of 6 months of gainful self-employment

Employed job outcomes are registered by the DWP Provider Referral and Payment (PRaP) system based on earnings information reported to the department by HMRC within 21 months of the participant’s start on the scheme. These earnings must have commenced within 12 months of starting on the scheme, and the earnings threshold must be met within 18 months of starting on the scheme.

Self-employed job outcomes are reported to the DWP by the provider. A provider is entitled to claim a self-employed job outcome when the participant has achieved a cumulative period of not less than 6 months of self-employment within a 547-day qualifying period, having started that 6-month period of self-employment within their 365 days on the scheme.

Job outcome expectation

The contractual job outcome expectation is the expected number of job outcomes achieved by a particular cohort of participants at a point in time. Each cohort has a particular final job outcome expectation. Overall, it is expected that 36% of participants in the scheme will achieve a job outcome within the qualifying time period, over the life of the programme. The job outcome expectation rises for cohorts over time, reflecting the anticipated economic conditions and maturity of the scheme. Of all participants to September 2022, 31% are expected to achieve a job outcome.

The job outcome expectation may be reported within this publication for the programme, for participants of a particular CPA, or for participants belonging to a particular start cohort.

Inferences about the scheme’s delivery from changes in performance against expectation should be done very cautiously. It is likely that much of the change in performance, although difficult to quantify, is influenced by expansions in eligibility that have brought in different compositions of participants and changes in economy, as well as the increase in job outcome expectation.

4. Joining the Restart Scheme

Since June 2021, to the end of September 2022, across England and Wales, there have been a total of:

• 410,000 individuals referred (individuals can have multiple referrals but are only counted once)

• 340,000 starts on the programme

Referrals to and starts on the Restart Scheme peaked in November 2021. Referral volumes are now reducing in line with expectations

Number of individuals referred to, and starting on, the Restart Scheme each month between July 2021 and September 2022

The number of individual referrals and starts increased in the months following the programme’s launch in July 2021. Eligibility rules were changed in January 2022, and again in April 2022. The Department reassessed the demand for the Restart Scheme and revised the number of people expected to start on the programme from 1.4 million to 0.7 million over the programme life. The volume of referrals and starts each month has fallen since March 2022. This is in-line with the volume of referrals required to meet the revised start expectation.

Nationally, 82% of individuals referred to the scheme have started to date. This varies between 79% and 85% across CPAs

Distribution of individuals referred to the Restart Scheme, and the number of which have started, in each CPA between July 2021 and September 2022

There are several reasons why an individual may not have started on the Restart Scheme having been referred. For recent referrals, this could be because the individual has not yet attended their initial meeting with the provider.

For referrals for which more than 40 working days have elapsed without a start recorded, these individuals may never go on to start. This could be because the individual found work before starting on the programme or have not attended the welcome meeting.

Table: Number of referrals and starts by CPA between July 2021 and September 2022

Area	Provider	Individuals referred	Starts	% of individuals referred that have started
West Central	Serco	40,600	33,300	82%
East Central	Jobs22	33,800	27,900	83%
North East and Humberside	Reed	28,300	23,900	84%
S&W Yorkshire, Derbyshire & Nottingham	Maximus	46,300	36,400	79%
North West	G4S	28,800	23,000	80%
Greater Manchester	Ingeus	25,400	21,700	85%
South West	Seetec	24,400	19,800	81%
South Central	Fedcap	25,900	20,900	80%
Central and West London	Ingeus	56,500	46,900	83%
South and East London	Maximus	37,300	30,000	80%
Home Counties	Reed	48,800	40,900	84%
Wales	Serco	16,600	14,000	84%
National	-	410,000	340,000	82%

Note: In this table individuals referred and starts are rounded to the nearest 100 at the CPA level and to the nearest 10,000 on a national level. Sum of figures may therefore not sum to the national volumes. These percentages are derived from unrounded figures.

Up until September 2022, 82% of individuals referred have started on the programme. Figures vary across areas. Cumulatively, the highest rate of individuals referred to starts is in Greater Manchester (85%) and the lowest is in South & West Yorkshire, Derbyshire & Nottingham (79%).

Table: Proportion of starts on the Restart Scheme by gender, from July 2021 to September 2022

Volumes and proportions of individuals who have started on Restart split by recorded gender.

Recorded Gender	Starts	Proportion of starts
Female	140,000	42%
Male	200,000	58%
Unknown	-	-
Total	340,000	100%

Note: In this table participants are rounded to the nearest 10,000. Sum of figures may therefore not sum to 100%. These percentages are derived from unrounded figures. “-“ denotes nil or negligible volumes.

Proportion of starts on the Restart Scheme by age group, July 2021 to September 2022

As noted in the introduction, Kickstart, a large scale programme for young people, ran alongside Restart until April 2022, therefore it is likely that the numbers of young people starting on Restart during that period are lower than they would have been in the absence of Kickstart.

5. First earnings from employment, job outcomes, and performance against expectation

First earnings in employment are the point at which a participant achieves their first earnings from their first employment while on the programme. This excludes both first earnings from self-employment and subsequent employments.

92,000 individuals achieved first earnings between July 2021 and September 2022.

July 2021 saw the first participant achieve first earnings from employment. As of September 2022, 92,000 participants have achieved first earnings from employment with 9,500 of these being achieved in the most recent month (September 2022). Some retrospection can occur in first earnings figures as recorded on HMRC Real Time Earnings (RTE) data, therefore, figures for recent months are likely to be a slight underestimate.

There was a decrease in first earnings from employment during the winter months of 2021. It is not yet clear whether this will be a continued seasonal effect.

Job outcomes represent sustained employment. Not all individuals that achieve first earnings will progress to meet the criteria of a job outcome.

39,000 individuals have achieved a job outcome between July 2021 and September 2022

Number of individuals achieving job outcomes each month, according to the month in which the job outcome was recorded, July 2021 to September 2022

The first job outcome was recorded in September 2021. As of September 2022, 39,000 participants have achieved either an employed or self-employed outcome with 6,000 of these being achieved in the most recent month (September 2022).

Over time the number of job outcomes recorded has generally increased as more people started on the scheme, and as participants have spent, on average, more time in receipt of support from the scheme.

First earnings from employment and job outcomes are not directly comparable as job outcome figures include those who are self-employed, while first earnings figures do not. Support to participants on the programme ends after 12 months and time to accumulate earnings to achieve a job outcome finishes at 18 months.

Expectations

The expectations used in the Restart Scheme statistics are the expected number of job outcomes for the scheme, either nationally or split by CPA, when the scheme was launched.

As noted in Section 3 inferences about the scheme’s delivery from changes in performance should be done very cautiously. It is likely that some of the change in performance, although difficult to quantify, is influenced by expansions in eligibility that have brought in different compositions of participants, as well as changes in economy, and the increase in job outcome expectation.

National job outcome performance at this point is 117% of that expected within the contracts, with 39,000 participants achieving a job outcome between July 2021 and September 2022 against an expectation of 33,000

Job outcomes recorded each month, against the contractual expectation – July 2021 to September 2022

From July 2021, the actual and expected job outcomes increased until August 2022 where a decrease in actual job outcomes is seen. The actual number of job outcomes fell in April 2022 but increased from May 2022 until August 2022.

In the most recent month available (September 2022) the actual number of job outcomes increased to 6,000, which is below the expected number of job outcomes (6,200).

The number of job outcomes has been higher than expectations in most months since the programme’s launch, but has been lower than expectations in April, August, and September 2022

Actual job outcomes as a percentage of expected job outcomes, by month for October 2021 to September 2022

Note: The expected job outcome performance line shows where actual job outcomes achieved are equal to the expected number of job outcomes. Tracking of performance begins from October 2021 due to small volumes of job outcome expectations in the first 3 months of the scheme. Job outcomes are recorded according to the month in which the outcome definition is achieved. For example, the 120% figure for June 2022 indicates that, across all cohorts combined, the actual number of job outcomes for June 2022 was 120% of the expected number of job outcomes for this month.

Job outcome performance was higher than expected in the earlier months of the scheme, with participants achieving sustained employment faster than expected in the second half of 2022. Performance has since decreased and remained closer to expected levels.

Nationally, overall performance of actual job outcomes against expected job outcomes has changed month to month, between 226% (December 2021) and 95% (August 2022)

Table: National number of starts, first earnings from employment and job outcomes achieved against job outcome expectation by start month, from July 2021 to March 2022

Start Month	Starts	First earnings from employment	First earnings rate	Job outcomes achieved	Job Outcome rate	Current Job Outcome expectation	Performance against expectation
Jul-21	700	400	60%	300	42%	25%	168%
Aug-21	6,400	3,500	54%	2,200	35%	23%	149%
Sep-21	21,000	10,200	49%	6,200	29%	21%	137%
Oct-21	27,200	11,900	44%	6,500	24%	20%	123%
Nov-21	34,400	13,500	39%	6,700	19%	17%	111%
Dec-21	25,700	9,200	36%	4,200	16%	15%	108%
Jan-22	27,800	9,600	34%	4,100	15%	13%	116%
Feb-22	28,500	9,000	32%	3,500	12%	10%	118%
Mar-22	30,500	7,800	25%	2,400	8%	8%	102%

Note: In this table starts, first earnings from employment and job outcomes achieved are rounded to the nearest 100. These percentages are derived from unrounded figures.

This table shows the volume of first earnings from employment and job outcomes achieved against expectation by the start month of the participants and not the month in which the first earnings or job outcomes were achieved.

Of those individuals who have had the opportunity for up to 12 months of support on the scheme (those starting between July 2021 and September 2021), 50% (14,000 participants from 28,000 starts) have moved into employment (achieved first earnings). The job outcome rate for these individuals, representing sustained employment following first earnings, is 31%. These individuals have a further 6 months in which to accumulate earnings meeting the job outcome definition.

Some cohorts of starts have had an insufficient amount of time to achieve job outcomes against expectations. For example, the October 2021 cohort still has 9 months to achieve further outcomes and the February 2022 cohort still has 13 months in which to do so. The performance against expectation percentage shows how each cohort is performing against job outcome expectation as of September 2022, but job outcome rates will continue to increase as each cohort matures.

Job outcome rates of cohorts up to March 2022 currently meet or exceed job outcome rate expectations, as of September 2022

Job outcome rate against current job outcome expectation for cohorts that have had more than 6 months on the programme by start month, July 2021 to March 2022

This chart shows the current job outcome rates for cohorts up to March 2022 against the job outcome rate expectation for these cohorts, as of September 2022. The final job outcome expectation is the job outcome rate expectation for each cohort after 21 months. As of September 2022, no cohorts have yet matured by 21 months.

Participants who started between July 2021 and March 2022 have met or exceeded job outcome expectations so far and are on or ahead of target to achieve the final job outcome expectation for their respective cohort.

Performance against current expectation ranges between 168% (July 2021) and 102% (March 2022). The July 2021 and August 2021 cohorts are comparatively small in volume to subsequent cohorts, and this should be taken into account when considering job outcome performance for these participants.

31% of participants who have had the opportunity of 12 months of support on the scheme have achieved a job outcome within 12 months

Percentage of starts achieving a job outcome within 6 months (starts July 2021 to March 2022), 9 months (starts July 2021 to December 2021), and 12 months (starts July 2021 to September 2021), by start month

This graph shows the percentage of cohorts achieving a job outcome within 6 to 12 months on the programme and only shows cohorts that have spent at least this amount of time on the scheme. Whilst the 12-month measure is the key long-term measure, it is the least timely as we can currently only report it for cohorts that started up to September 2021.

Over time, the percentage of starts achieving a job outcome has decreased and is beginning to level off. It currently ranges between:

• 21% (July 2021) and 8% (March 2022) within 6 months of starting on the programme

• 31% (July 2021) and 16% (December 2021) within 9 months of starting on the programme

• 40% (July 2021) and 29% (September 2021) within 12 months of starting on the programme

Job outcome performance was higher than expected in the earlier months of the scheme, with participants moving into sustained work faster than expected in the second half of 2021. Performance has since decreased and remained closer to expected levels

Overall job outcome performance exceeds expectations in all Contract Package Areas between July 2021 and September 2022

Table: Number of starts, job outcomes recorded, job outcome expectation, and performance by contract package area, July 2021 to September 2022

Contract Package Area	Provider	Starts	Job outcomes recorded	Job outcome expectation	Performance
West Central	Serco	33,300	3,200	3,100	106%
East Central	Jobs22	27,900	3,200	2,700	118%
North East and Humberside	Reed	23,900	2,900	2,400	118%
S&W Yorkshire, Derbyshire & Nottingham	Maximus	36,400	3,800	3,600	107%
North West	G4S	23,000	2,300	2,100	109%
Greater Manchester	Ingeus	21,700	2,300	2,100	110%
South West	Seetec	19,800	2,600	2,200	117%
South Central	Fedcap	20,900	2,900	2,200	132%
Central and West London	Ingeus	46,900	5,300	4,200	127%
South and East London	Maximus	30,000	3,600	2,800	128%
Home Counties	Reed	40,900	4,800	4,100	115%
Wales	Serco	14,000	1,700	1,400	114%
National	-	340,000	39,000	33,000	117%

Note: In this table starts, job outcomes achieved, and job outcome expectations are rounded to the nearest 100 at a CPA level and to the nearest 1000 at a national level. These percentages are derived from unrounded figures. Sum of figures may therefore not sum to national volumes.

Actual job outcomes as a proportion of expected job outcomes for each contract package area (and provider), July 2021 to September 2022

Across all contract package areas and providers, overall performance of actual job outcomes ranges between 106% (West Central, Serco) and 132% (South Central, Fedcap) of the expected number of outcomes, when summed across the period July 2021 and September 2022. Note that these figures include all participants who have started on the scheme within this period. Those who have started more recently have not had as much time to achieve job outcomes and may still go on to do so.

All contract package areas have exceeded job outcome expectation within the last 12 months

Job outcome performance against expectation for the latest 6 and 12 months, split by contract package area (and provider)

Across all contract package areas and providers, the actual number of job outcomes exceeded the expected number for the 12-month measure (October 2021 to September 2022), ranging between 106% (West Central, Serco) and 132% (South Central, Fedcap). In the most recent 6-month period available (April 2022 and September 2022), the actual number of job outcomes against expected job outcomes ranges between 99% (West Central, Serco) and 126% (South Central, Fedcap).

6. About these statistics

This ad hoc statistical summary gives an overview. Key points and trends are presented using charts and commentary. The information underlying the charts is available as supporting tables.

Rounding

Percentages are calculated using unrounded numbers, to the nearest whole percentage point. For these reasons, some totals may not sum to 100. The headline figures and those accompanying the graphs have been rounded as shown in the following table.

From	To	Round to nearest
0	1,000	10
1,001	10,000	100
10,001	100,000	1,000
100,001	1,000,000	10,000
1,000,001	10,000,000	100,000
10,000,001	100,000,000	1,000,000

How can this data be used?

You can use this data:

• for monitoring the overall flow of participants being referred to and starting on the Restart Scheme, those achieving first earnings and job outcomes

• for monitoring the differences in demographics of programme participants for gender, age group and region

You cannot use this data:

• for making simple comparisons between different demographic groups (gender, age group and area) in terms of the success of the programme

Statement of compliance with the Code of Practice for Statistics

The Code of Practice for Statistics is built around 3 main concepts, or pillars:

• trustworthiness – is about having confidence in the people and organisations that publish statistics

• quality – is about using data and methods that produce statistics

• value – is about publishing statistics that support society’s needs

The following explains how we have applied the pillars of the Code in a proportionate way.

Trustworthiness

These figures have been published to provide additional information on the Restart Scheme following the Public Accounts Committee in December 2022. Releasing them via an ad hoc publication will give equal access to all those with an interest in them.

Quality

The data which underpins this information is taken directly from the DWP Provider Referral and Payments System, Customer information System, Labour Market System, HMRC Real Time Earnings and Universal Credit administrative data. The methodology and calculations have been quality assured by DWP analysts to ensure they are the best estimates using information available at the time.

Value

Producing and releasing these figures is in the public interest and provides User Organisations and the public with useful information about the Restart Scheme that they may not otherwise be able to generate or obtain.

Further information and feedback

Contact DWP Press Office if you have any questions or feedback.

DWP Press Office: 0115 965 8781

Lead Analyst: Simon Marlow

Analysts: Benjamin Cutting, Laura Durant, Michael Leonard, Robin Wood