Official Statistics

Statistics relating to passenger arrivals in the United Kingdom since the COVID-19 outbreak, November 2021

Published 25 November 2021

1. Passenger arrivals

This release presents the latest experimental statistical update on passenger arrivals between 01 January 2019 and 31 October 2021. This report focuses on comparisons between the pre- and ongoing COVID-19 period (using 2019 as the baseline for comparisons), examining the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on numbers of air passenger arrivals in the UK. More information on the data sources and limitations can be found in the ‘about the data’ section.

The Home Office publishes data on the total number of passenger arrivals to the UK in the quarterly Immigration Statistics release. The data published here comes from a different source to the passenger arrivals data in the Immigration Statistics, and so the numbers presented may differ.

2. Key findings

Over the last 19 months (April 2020 to October 2021), arrivals to the UK by air have been, on average, around 85% lower than levels seen prior to the COVID-19 outbreak.

There were 4,470,000 air passenger arrivals to the UK in the month of October 2021 (from Advance Passenger Information (API) data). This is two and half times higher (a 157% increase) than the total number of air arrivals for October 2020 when there were 1,741,100 arrivals. There has been a higher volume of air travel to the UK since August 2021, with the number of arrivals in each month at the highest level since March 2020, when travel restrictions were first introduced worldwide and the UK entered its first lockdown. The number of arrivals in October 2021 remains much lower than a typical pre-COVID October at around half (-54%) of the arrivals in October 2019 (9,788,500).

Figure 1: Rolling weekly air passenger arrivals to the UK, Jan 2019 - Oct 2021

Source: Air passenger arrivals data tables

Figure 1 shows that, for the first time since before the first UK lockdown, air passenger arrivals reached over a million per week from mid-to-late October 2021.

There were fewer than 200,000 air arrivals per month between April and June 2020, following the start of the first UK lockdown. Around 40% of those arrivals were British citizens, and a significant number of those travelling on a foreign passport will have been resident in the UK. There was a slight increase in the number of arrivals in the summer of 2020, reaching a high of 3.1 million arrivals in August, but this was still 74% lower than the comparable figure for August 2019. After the summer months the number of air arrivals subsequently decreased again with fewer than 500,000 air arrivals per month in February to April 2021. This was due to a combination of tightened restrictions towards the end of 2020 and the typical seasonal patterns in arrivals, which are lower in winter months. The number of arrivals has since increased each month up to October 2021, which is typical of seasonal patterns of arrivals in summer months but also demonstrates that air passenger arrivals are on an upward trajectory. As noted, current numbers of arrivals are still lower than comparable periods prior to the pandemic.

The charts in this report show the key dates which are likely to have had an impact on passenger arrivals to the UK, either through restrictions on travel, or requirements in place for those who do travel.

1. 23 March 2020: First UK lockdown announced.
2. 08 June 2020: Health measures introduced at the border. This relates to a series of measures that were designed to prevent new cases of Covid-19 being brought in from abroad.
3. 10 July 2020: International Travel Corridors introduced. Passengers arriving from specific countries advised that they will not need to self-isolate when arriving in England.
4. 05 November 2020: Second national lockdown in England starts.
5. 05 January 2021: Third national lockdown in England starts.
6. 18 January 2021: Travellers from abroad required to show proof of a negative Covid-19 test. International Travel Corridors suspended, meaning all travellers from outside the UK, Ireland, Channel Islands and Isle of Man need to self-isolate for 10 days after arriving in the UK.
7. 15 February 2021: Introduction of Managed Quarantine, which requires arrivals to England from “red list” countries, from British or Irish nationals or residents of the UK, to book an isolation package at a government approved facility. Non-British or Irish nationals and non-UK residents from red list countries were not allowed to enter the UK at all.
8. 17 May 2021: Traffic Light system introduced, with the inclusion of amber and green lists for countries.
9. 08 June 2021: Removal of travel ban from red list countries and introduction of dedicated red list terminals.
10. 08 July 2021: Passengers who are fully vaccinated after receiving the NHS administered vaccine no longer need to self-isolate upon arrival from an amber list country.
11. 02 August 2021: Passengers who have been fully vaccinated with vaccines authorised by the European Medicines Agency (EMA) in amber European countries (EU member states) and EU Free Trade Association countries and by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in the USA can travel to the UK without self-isolation and day 8 testing. France was included on 8th August.
12. 04 October 2021: New travel system comes into force with countries and territories categorised as either red or rest of the world. The changes placed a greater emphasis upon a traveler’s vaccination status to determine requirements under health measures. Fully vaccinated passengers no longer required to complete a PDT, to test on day 8 or to self-isolate.

Where dates relate to periods of lockdown, the date shown is for England, but similar changes were occurring at similar times in the other countries of the UK. Additional factors affecting the numbers of travellers will include the individual restrictions imposed by each of the devolved administrations, travel bans to or from the UK from different countries, and changes made to testing requirements and availability.

Typically, in pre-COVID months, around half of air passenger arrivals in the UK are British nationals (although this can fluctuate from month to month). The other arrivals will include foreign nationals who are UK residents returning to the UK, non-British dependants of UK residents, and other non-British nationals including those who are visiting or working in the UK.

Figure 2: Weekly air passenger arrivals to the UK, by nationality, Jan 2020 – Oct 2021

Source: Air passenger arrivals data tables

Figure 2 shows a pattern of increasing number of arrivals and an increasing proportion of arrivals who were British nationals between July and October 2021. This is a consequence of restrictions being eased on international travel and increased movement of British nationals moving to and from in the UK in the last few months.

The increase in arrivals over the summer of 2020, when restrictions were first being lifted and international travel corridors were opened, also corresponds with an increase in the proportion of arrivals from British nationals (as shown in Table 1). Arrivals from British nationals were very low (at less than 35% of total arrivals on average) during the first few months of 2021 when restrictions on travel were high.

Table 1: Passengers arriving to the UK by air, compared with the same month in 2019

	Air arrivals	% of whom: British nationals	% change in total arrivals compared with same month in 2019
January 2020	7,082,000	41%	+1%
February 20201	6,804,900	51%	-2%
March 2020	3,815,300	58%	-51%
April 2020	112,300	56%	-99%
May 2020	139,300	36%	-99%
June 2020	194,900	34%	-98%
July 2020	1,260,400	49%	-89%
August 2020	3,106,500	57%	-74%
September 2020	2,757,700	53%	-75%
October 2020	1,741,100	53%	-82%
November 2020	690,600	46%	-90%
December 2020	895,000	44%	-88%
January 2021	631,500	32%	-91%
February 2021	319,200	31%	-95%
March 2021	386,600	36%	-95%
April 2021	447,300	34%	-95%
May 2021	527,800	35%	-95%
June 2021	855,800	43%	-92%
July 2021	1,439,800	54%	-87%
August 2021	3,438,700	59%	-71%
September 2021	3,810,700	56%	-65%
October 2021	4,470,000	61%	-54%
April 2020 to October 20212	27,225,200	53%	-85%

Source: Air passenger arrivals data tables

Notes

1. In order to ensure the February 2020 comparison with February 2019 compares the same number of days, arrivals on the 29 February 2020 are excluded from the ‘% change with the same month in 2019’ column but are included in the total number of arrivals for that month.
2. Comparisons are with the equivalent months between January and December 2019.
3. Totals in the table may not equal the sum of individual days in the accompanying air passenger arrivals data table due to rounding.

Additional data drawn from Border and Immigration Transactions data (BITD) can be used to illustrate arrivals through the air, sea and rail routes – although numbers of transactions will not accurately reflect the total number of individuals arriving due to the way in which the transaction systems operate at the border.

Passengers arriving by air accounted for 87% of all passenger arrivals (across all routes) to the UK in the year ending March 2020, which was typical of the pre-pandemic period. Following the first UK lockdown, this proportion fell to 38% by May 2020, as air arrivals fell more sharply than rail and sea arrivals. The proportion recovered in the following months but still remained lower than the pre-pandemic period. Between April 2020 to January 2021, air arrivals were 89% lower than the equivalent pre-COVID period, sea arrivals were 71% lower and rail arrivals were 75% lower.

The latest information on arrivals across all routes can be found in the publication: ‘Statistics relating to passenger arrivals since the COVID-19 outbreak May 2021’. The BITD figures in the report cover the period between April 2019 and January 2021. Due to the ongoing development of new borders systems, data for months since January 2021 are currently unavailable but it is our intention to provide these in future publications.

3. About the data

Data on passenger arrivals are derived from live operational systems; Advance Passenger Information (API), and Border and Immigration Transaction Data (BITD). These data are not designed for statistical purposes, there are known issues in producing estimates of arrivals from these sources and the data sources are not directly comparable.

API data primarily relate to passengers coming to the UK via commercial aviation routes. The data do not include those arriving by sea or rail routes, by private aircraft or via the Common Travel Area (CTA). Figures for more recent periods in particular, may also be subject to revision.

BITD data relate to those coming to the UK on air, sea, and rail routes, but does not include those coming via the CTA. As the system was not designed for statistical purposes, the data should be considered indicative. Some passengers will be counted multiple times in the data where more than one interaction has occurred. Data from the year ending March 2020 is the earliest available for reporting purposes. The impact of COVID-19 will affect March 2020 data to some degree.

Data from the API on the number of passengers arriving by air are published in the accompanying air passenger arrivals data tables.