Accredited official statistics

UK overseas trade in goods statistics January 2024: methodology notes

Published 13 March 2024

Metadata 

Data behind this bulletin is available through the UK Trade Info web site: 

•  Detailed Trade Statistics data at 8-digit commodity code level is available in our interactive database   
•  Aggregate OTS data is available in pre-prepared Excel tables

Data Sources 

From 31 December 2020, the free movement of people and goods and services between the UK and the European Union (EU) ended. This meant the way HMRC had been collecting trade in goods statistics was revised.   

UK to EU exports   

For goods moving from 1 January 2021, GB to EU export statistics have been compiled directly from customs export declarations made according to the requirements of the Taxation (Cross Border Trade) Act. Intrastat survey returns, however, continued to be collected for goods exported from Northern Ireland to the EU, under the terms of the Northern Ireland Protocol.   

Both the GB to EU customs export declaration data and NI Intrastat export (dispatch) data were incorporated into the overall UK to EU export dataset.  

As a result of the changes and differences outlined above, there was a break in the timeseries for published UK to EU export statistics from January 2021. 

UK imports from EU   

UK imports from EU statistics were not impacted by any change in 2021. The Intrastat survey continued to operate for all UK (GB and NI) imports (arrivals) from the EU, to mitigate the effects of staging customs controls, and to comply with the Northern Ireland Protocol. 

However, from 1 January 2022, Intrastat only applied for movements of goods between Northern Ireland and the EU. Statistics on movements to GB from the EU have been compiled directly from customs import declarations. Both the EU to GB customs import declaration data and NI Intrastat import (arrivals) data were incorporated into the overall EU to UK import dataset. 

As a result of the changes and differences outlined above, there was a break in the timeseries for published EU to UK import statistics from January 2022. 

Northern Ireland Trade   

Figures derived from Intrastat include the following:   

•  Estimates for businesses who have yet to submit detailed data on the trade they had with other EU Member States this month   
•  Estimates for businesses who do not have to submit detailed data on the trade they have with other EU Member States   

Estimates are included in all high-level totals including commodity (HS2) and country totals. 

Non-EU trade 

Non-EU trade are compiled from customs declarations collected by the CHIEF (Customs Handling of Import and Export Freight) system. Declarations collected via the Customs Declarations Service (CDS) are included: for imports from August 2020 month of account; and for exports from December 2020 month of account onwards. Detailed trade information is presented according to the Harmonised System (HS) nomenclature. 

Low Value Trade 

For trade in goods collected from custom declarations (UK trade with non-EU and GB trade with EU), imports and exports of an individual value of £873 or less are aggregated under SITC group 931 – ‘Special transactions and commodities not classified according to kind’, and classified to a single commodity code – 99500000. This trade is not analysed either by commodity or country. Statistics for individual commodities are therefore deficient by these amounts.  

For Intrastat (NI-EU), transactions (that is, invoice lines) with a value of £175 or less can be aggregated and classified to a single commodity code (9950 0000).  

As a result, trade in some commodities may appear as nil trade, if all trade in that commodity falls in the low value aggregate.

Methodology 

The Overseas Trade in Goods Statistics Methodology paper (January 2024) covers: 

• data sources  
• classifications and definitions 
• quality assurance 
• publications and  
• governance 

It is a useful companion to the trade data, providing the definitions and methodologies on which the data are based. The most recent changes in the OTS methodology are covered in this paper.   

Non-Monetary Gold (NMG) can form a substantial part of the non-EU Overseas Trade Statistics (OTS). For further information, see Inclusion of non-Monetary Gold in OTS. Data relating to monthly non-EU and EU import and export totals for January 2008 onwards with a breakdown of non-monetary gold and other trade is available in an OTS time series spreadsheet.

Relationship with other statistical publications   

The aggregate estimates here will differ slightly from those that are published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) as part of the Balance of Payments (BoP), as the 2 sets of data are compiled to different sets of rules. The ONS website provides an overview of BoP, where you can find their detailed monthly UK Trade Releases. The BoP publication shows a high-level picture of UK trade-in-goods, whereas the OTS publication shows a detailed picture of the UK’s trade-in-goods by commodity and partner country.   

National Statistics Publication 

National Statistics are accredited official statistics. The Overseas Trade in Goods Statistics (OTS) were independently reviewed by the Office for Statistics Regulation in October 2010 with publication of the report in February 2011. They comply with the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics and should be labelled ‘accredited official statistics’. Accredited official statistics are called National Statistics in the Statistics and Registration Service Act 2007.

HM Revenue & Customs released these latest statistics on Overseas Trade with countries on 13 March 2024 under arrangements set out in the Code of Practice for Official Statistics.  

This release includes the first provisional estimates of trade-in-goods between the UK and both countries of the EU and those outside the EU for January 2024. At the same time revisions for all previously published non-EU and EU data for 2023 are also being released in line with the HM Revenue & Customs Policy on Revisions.

The next three publications are due for release on the following days: 

Month of Account	First release date
February 2024	12 April 2024
March 2024	10 May 2024
April 2024	12 June 2024

Our statistical practice is regulated by the Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR). 

OSR sets the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics that all producers of official statistics should adhere to.  

You are welcome to contact us directly with any comments about how we meet these standards by emailing uktradeinfo@hmrc.gov.uk. 

Alternatively, you can contact OSR by emailing regulation@statistics.gov.uk or via the OSR website.