Official Statistics

United Kingdom Food Security Report 2024: Annexes

Published 11 December 2024

Part of the United Kingdom Food Security Report 2024

Presented to Parliament pursuant to Section 19 of the Agriculture Act 2020

© Crown copyright 2024

ISBN 978-1-5286-5232-2

Annex I

UK Food Security Report Changes Log

Rationale

The purpose of this Annex is to summarise the consultation process for the UKFSR 2024 including the feedback received and how it was addressed. It also provides a table tracking changes to the set of indicators between the 2021 and 2024 iterations of the UKFSR to support readers with referring back to indicators in the UKFSR 2021.

Consultation process

Production of UKFSR 2024 has involved extensive consultation with stakeholders and experts. This has included workshops with government experts, a public questionnaire – which was also shared with food sector stakeholders - and an ongoing engagement with a dedicated Expert Elicitation Group of food system specialists, industry stakeholders and academics to ensure scientific scrutiny and rigour.

The UKFSR production team sought targeted views on the UKFSR 2021; specifically, whether existing indicators should be retained and enhanced, merged, or removed, while also conducting a scoping exercise for new indicators. Criteria for inclusion of new content was that data should be high quality, relevant to the subject, add value to existing content, and be published and peer reviewed where possible. The 6 dimensions of the food security definition set the parameters for considerations of relevance of data to food security (see Annex II for an explanation of the dimensions).

This consultation has driven several improvements to the UKFSR 2024 including expansions and refinement of indicators and improvements to the accessibility of UKFSR. Some proposed data was not included in UKFSR 2024, which was generally due to issues with the availability of quality data or needing to prioritise data to avoid indicators becoming too lengthy. An example of data not included was aspects of data on a local level such as household stockpiling due to absence of available public data.

Feedback Overview

Section of Report	Key Message
Overall	Report structure: Make stronger links between themes to support systems understanding. Presentation: Clarify definition of food security including the elements of food security covered. Future: Include more forward-looking content, including how future shocks and stresses identified could interact and cascade through the food system. Nutrition and diet: Take a more nuanced approach to nutrition beyond calorie intake. Local data: Do more to track food security at a local level.
Theme 1: Global food availability	Climate and environmental risks: Strengthen analysis on impacts of climate change and biodiversity loss over long term.Relevance to UK food security: Ensure food commodities selected for analysis are relevant to the UK food system.Trade risks: Look at maritime chokepoints and export bans
Theme 2: UK food supply sources	Land use: Ensure land use change analysis does more to consider types and quality of land. Sustainability: Include more measures of sustainability such as use of fertiliser and antimicrobials. Nature: Include more on slow onset change in nature and ecosystem services such as biodiversity and pollinators. Overseas sourcing and climate risks: Consider range of risks to imports including from climate change, nature loss, and concentration in key supplier countries.
Theme 3: Food supply chain resilience	Approach: Distinguish between shocks and stresses in the food system as they require different management strategies. Business landscape: Look at business investment levels and risks to supply chain from consolidation of business and outsourcing manufacturing overseas. Trade and transportation: Consider climate change impacts on transport systems and logistical choke points. Non-food inputs: Include data on food packaging. Local resilience: Include data on household stockpiling.
Theme 4: Household-level food security	Diet and nutrition: Include data on nutrition and healthy diets, including on sustainability and recognition of difference between sustainable and healthy diets. Food insecurity: Highlight the varied impacts on different demographics. Current trends: Cover the impact of cost-of-living challenges from the period of high inflation, the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, and trends such as access to online shopping.
Theme 5: Food safety and consumer confidence	Sources: Use a wider range of sources Surveillance sampling: Include sources to national surveillance programmes. Sampling rates: Include data on local authority sampling rates and skills shortages now in (theme 3) Trade: Include border compliance data (for non-EU food imported to GB).

Overview of changes from UKFSR 2021

Structure

• Across UKFSR indicators have been reordered, enhanced, renamed, merged or removed. These changes have been tracked in the tables below, which outline the 2021 indicator number, the decided outcomes for each indicator, the new 2024 indicator number, and new indicator names where applicable.

• Some indicators have been merged and some have been disaggregated. The purpose of these changes is to aid accessibility and navigability for readers, as well as to help facilitate a logical reading order to reflect the overall food system, especially with regards to displaying linked factors together. Notably, indicators on food sources in theme 2 have been organised by food groups rather than separating into trade and production.

• New indicator groupings, called ‘sub-themes’, have been introduced (e.g. Production in theme 1), to allow for greater navigability​ of UKFSR.

• The structure within indicators has been changed to make it easier to identify the headline statistic (now under ‘headline evidence’) and the supporting statistics (now under ‘supporting evidence’)

• New annexes support accessibility: a glossary of technical terms; an explainer of the consultation process behind the UKFSR (Annex I); and an explainer of its intellectual framework and food security definition (Annex II).

New Content

• Following feedback, the majority of indicators from the UKFSR 2021 have been retained and enhanced.

• There are new substantive indicators across the report (see indicator changes by theme below) including indicators on diet and health, foodbank usage, productivity, biosecurity, and water dependency.

• Indicators measuring environmental change have been expanded to enhance the UKFSR’s longer-term view

• Indicators have been developed to put forward a ‘multi-criteria’ analysis that links the different dimensions of food security such as availability, access (e.g. affordability), utilisation (e.g. health and nutrition) and stability (e.g. price).

• Climate analysis has been integrated across sectors (crops, fruit and veg, livestock, fish, transport, water) in place of a single agriculture focused climate indicator and strengthened using UK Climate Projection (UKCP) data.

• Theme 4 Household Food Security has enhanced data related to groups with protected characteristics, e.g. age, disability.

Indicator Changes by Theme

• The tables below outline the changes made to indicators since the 2021 UKFSR. As tracked below, some indicators from the 2021 report have been renamed to better reflect the data included in the 2024 report.

Theme 1: Global Food Availability

2024 Indicator Number	2024 Indicator/Case Study Name	2021 Indicator Number	2021 Indicator/Case Study Name	Decision	Grouping
1.1.1	Global output per capita	1.1.1	Global food production	(Retained and enhanced)	Production​
1.1.2	Global food loss and waste	NEW	NEW	NEW	Production
1.1.3	Global cereals production	1.1.2	Cereal yield growth rates by region​	(Retained and enhanced)	Production
1.1.4	Production of global livestock products	1.1.4	Global livestock and dairy production	(Retained and enhanced)	Production​
1.1.5	Global fruit and vegetable production	NEW	NEW	NEW	Production​
1.1.6	Global seafood production	1.1.6	Global fish stocks	(Retained and enhanced)	Production​
1.2.1	Global agricultural total factor productivity	1.2.1	Global agricultural labour force capacity	(Retained and enhanced)	Productivity and Inputs
1.2.2	Global land use change	1.1.7	Global land use change	(Retained and enhanced)	Productivity and Inputs ​
1.2.3	Global fertiliser production	1.1.8	Phosphate rock reserves​	(Retained and enhanced)	Productivity and Inputs ​
1.2.4	Water availability, usage and quality for global agriculture	1.1.9	Water withdrawn for agriculture	(Retained and enhanced)	Productivity and Inputs ​
1.3.1	Global stock to consumption ratios	1.1.4	Stock to consumption ratios	(Retained and enhanced)	Stocks, prices and trade
1.3.2	Global real prices	1.1.3	Real agricultural commodity prices	NEW	Stocks, prices and trade
1.3.2	Case Study 1: The role of exchange rates on food prices in Egypt	NEW	NEW	NEW	Stocks, prices and trade
1.3.3	Global production internationally traded		Share of global production internationally traded​		Stocks, prices and trade
1.3.3	Case Study 2: Export restrictions	NEW	NEW	NEW	Stocks, prices and trade
1.3.3	Case Study 3: The role of maritime trade chokepoints in global food security	NEW	NEW	NEW	Stocks, prices and trade
1.4.1	Global food and nutrition insecurity	NEW	NEW	NEW	Global food and nutrition insecurity
1.5.1	Global land degradation	NEW	NEW	NEW	Sustainability
1.5.2	Global One Health	NEW	NEW	NEW	Sustainability
1.1.1		1.2.2​	Components of global food demand growth	(Retained and enhanced)	Production
1.3.3		1.2.4	Concentration in world agricultural commodity markets​	(Retained, enhanced and merged)	Stocks, prices and trade

Theme 2: UK Supply Sources

2024 Indicator Number	2024 Indicator/Case Study Name	2021 Indicator Number	2021 Indicator/Case Study Name	Decision	Grouping
2.1.1​	Overall sources of UK food ​	2.1.1	UK Production Capability	(Retained, enhanced and merged)	Food Sources
2.1.2​	Arable (grain, oilseed and potatoes) ​	2.1.6	Domestic grain production	(Retained, enhanced)	Food Sources
2.1.3​	Livestock and poultry products (meat, eggs & dairy) ​	2.1.7	Livestock​	(Retained, enhanced)	Food Sources
2.1.4​	Fruits and vegetables ​	2.1.9	Supply sources of UK fresh fruit and vegetable imports	(Merged)	Food Sources
2.1.4	Case Study 1: Impact of drought and water stress on horticulture production in Spain	NEW	NEW	NEW	Food Sources
2.1.5​	Seafood ​	2.1.11	Fish​	(Retained and enhanced)	Food Sources
2.2.1​	Animal and plant health	NEW	NEW	NEW	Sustainability​ and Productivity
2.2.1	Case Study 2: Colorado Beetle (Leptinotarsa decemlineata) outbreak	NEW	NEW	NEW	Sustainability​ and Productivity
2.2.2​	Food waste​	2.2.2	Agriculture and supply chain waste​	(Merged and enhanced)	Sustainability​ and Productivity
2.2.3​	Agricultural productivity ​	NEW	NEW	NEW	Sustainability​ and Productivity
2.2.4​	Land use	2.1.2	Current land area in production​	(Retained and enhanced)	Sustainability​ and Productivity
2.2.5​	Biodiversity	2.3.5​	Environmental impacts of agriculture​	(Merged)	Sustainability​ and Productivity
2.2.6​	Soil health​	2.3.2	UK Soil health​	(Retained and enhanced)	Sustainability​ and Productivity
2.2.7​	Water quality​	NEW	NEW	NEW	Sustainability and Productivity ​
2.2.8​	Greenhouse gas emissions​	2.3.5	Environmental impacts of agriculture​	(Merged)	Sustainability​ and Productivity
2.2.9​	Sustainable farming​	2.3.1​	Sustainable agriculture​	(Retained and enhanced)	Sustainability and Productivity ​
2.1.1​	Overall sources of UK food ​	2.1.3	UK food imports and exports​	(Merged)
2.1.1​	Overall sources of UK food ​	2.1.4	EU share of UK imports​	(Merged)
3.2.3	Import flows​	2.1.4	EU share of UK imports​	(Merged)
2.1.1​	Overall sources of UK food ​	2.1.5	Overall diversity of supply	(Merged)
2.1.2	Arable (grain, oilseed and potatoes) ​	2.1.8​	Other domestic crops​	(Retained and enhanced)
2.1.4	Fruits and vegetables	2.1.8​	Other domestic crops​	(Retained and enhanced)
2.1.4	Fruits and vegetables	2.1.4	Seasonality​	(Merged)
3.1.1		2.2.1	Essential Inputs​	(Merged)
2.2.2	Food waste​	2.2.3	Household food waste​	(Merged)
		2.3.3​	Climate change impacts on yields​ (Merged)	(Merged)

Theme 3: Food Supply Chain Resilience

2024 Indicator Number	2024 Indicator/Case Study Name	2021 Indicator Number	2021 Indicator/Case Study Name	Decision	Grouping
3.1.1	Agricultural Inputs	NEW	NEW	NEW	Input Dependencies
3.1.2	Supply Chain Inputs	NEW	NEW	NEW	Input Dependencies
3.1.2	Case Study 1: Fortified Flour-Calcium Carbonate	3.1.7	Key inputs to the food supply chain resilience	(Retained and enhanced)	Input Dependencies
3.1.3	Labour and Skills	3.1.9	Labour and skills dependency​	(Retained and enhanced)	Input Dependencies
3.1.4	Water	NEW	NEW	NEW	Input Dependencies
3.1.4	Case Study 2: Felixstowe Hydrocycle	NEW	NEW	NEW	Input Dependencies
3.1.5	Energy	3.1.2	Energy dependency in the food sector​	(Retained and enhanced)	Input Dependencies
3.2.1	Transport	3.1.3	Transport dependency in the UK​	(Retained and enhanced)	Input Dependencies
3.2.2	Points of Entry in the UK	3.1.4	Points of entry in the UK	(Retained and enhanced)	Movement of Goods
3.2.3	Import flows​	3.1.6	Border closures​	(Retained and enhanced)	Movement of Goods
3.3.1	Cyber security	3.2.1	Cyber threat in the food supply chain​	(Retained and enhanced)	Food Business
3.3.2	Diversity of food retailers​	3.2.2	Diversity of food retailers​	(Retained and enhanced)	Food Business​
3.3.3	Business resilience	3.1.1	Business resilience and response​	(Merged)	Food Business​
3.2.2	Points of Entry in the UK	3.1.5	Food imports via Short Straits​	(Merged)	Movement of Goods
		3.1.8	Consumer behaviour​	(Removed)
3.3.3	Business resilience	3.2.3	Economic resilience in the food supply chain​	(Merged)	Food Business​

Theme 4: Food Security at Household Level

2024 Indicator Number	2024 Indicator/Case Study Name	2021 Indicator Number	2021 Indicator/Case Study Name	Decision	Grouping
4.1.1​	Household food security status ​	4.1.4	Household food security ​ (Retained and enhanced)	NEW	Affordability​
4.1.2​	Household spending on food	4.1.1	Food expenditure growth compared to other household spending growth	(Retained and enhanced)	Affordability​
4.1.3​	Price changes of main food groups ​	4.1.3	Price changes of main food groups	(Retained and enhanced)	Affordability​
4.1.4​	Government support schemes​	4.2.1	Eligibility for Free School Meals	(Retain, enhanced and merged)	Affordability​
4.1.5​	Food aid	NEW	NEW	NEW	Affordability​
4.2.1​	Physical access to food shops ​	4.1.5	Access to food shops in England ​	(Retained and enhanced)	Access to food shops
4.2.2​	Online access to food shops	NEW	NEW	NEW	Access to food shops
4.3.1​	Consumption patterns	NEW	NEW	NEW	Diet and Nutrition​
4.3.2​	Healthy diet	NEW	NEW	NEW	Diet and Nutrition​
4.3.2	Case Study 1: The lived experience of food insecurity and its impact on health	NEW	NEW	NEW	Diet and Nutrition​
4.3.3​	Sustainable diet ​	NEW	NEW	NEW	Diet and Nutrition
4.1.2​	Household spending on food	4.1.2	Low-income households’ share of spending on food	(Retained, enhanced and merged)
4.1.4	Government support schemes	4.2.2	Take-up of Healthy Start voucher scheme	(Retained, enhanced and merged)

Theme 5: Food Safety and Consumer Confidence

2024 Indicator Number	2024 Indicator/Case Study Name	2021 Indicator Number	2021 Indicator/Case Study Name	Decision	Grouping
5.1.1	Consumer confidence in the food system and its regulation	5.1.1	Consumer confidence in the food system and its regulation	(Retained and enhanced)	Consumer confidence
5.1.2	Consumer concerns	5.1.2	Consumer concerns	(Retained and enhanced)	Consumer confidence
5.2.1	Surveillance Sampling	NEW	NEW	NEW	Food Safety and Authenticity
5.2.1	Case study 1:The Food Authenticity Network	NEW	NEW	NEW	Food Safety and Authenticity
5.2.2	Food safety incidents, alerts, and recalls	5.1.4	Food safety incidents, alerts, and recalls.	(Retained)	Food Safety and Authenticity
5.2.2	Case Study 2: Listeria monocytogenes outbreak linked to smoked fish	NEW	NEW	NEW	Food Safety and Authenticity
5.2.2	Case Study 3: Determining increased risk to vibrio in seafood link to climate change	NEW	NEW	NEW	Food Safety and Authenticity
5.2.3	Foodborne pathogen surveillance	5.1.5	Prevalence of foodborne pathogens	(Retained)	Food Safety and Authenticity
5.2.4	Foodborne disease outbreak surveillance	5.1.6	Foodborne disease outbreak surveillance	(Retained)	Food Safety and Authenticity
5.2.5	Food crime	5.1.7	Food crime	(Retained)	Food Safety and Authenticity
5.2.5	Case Study 4: Strengthening the Line of Defence against Food Crime	NEW	NEW	NEW	Food Safety and Authenticity
5.2.5	Case Study 5: Disrupting the smokie trade	NEW	NEW	NEW	Food Safety and Authenticity
5.3.1	Food business compliance with food safety regulation	5.3.1	Food business compliance with food safety regulation	(Retained)	Food safety/hygiene and regulation
5.3.2	Safety of non-EU imports	NEW	NEW	NEW	Food safety/hygiene and regulation

Annex II

How the UKFSR incorporates the six dimensions of food security

Rationale

The UKFSR assesses food security across five ‘themes’ as a way of considering the whole UK food system. What food security means within those themes is understood according to the six ‘dimensions’ associated with the 1996 World Food Summit definition: food availability, food access, utilisation, stability, sustainability, and agency. This annex explains the dimensions and provides a table showing how the five UKFSR themes and indicators map onto the dimensions.

The six dimensions of food security

1996 World Food Summit definition defines food security as “when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient safe and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life.” 

This definition was originally understood to comprise 4 dimensions and recently been given two additional dimensions:

The 4 original dimensions 

• Food availability: “The availability of sufficient quantities of food of appropriate quality, supplied through domestic production or imports (including food aid)”

• Food access: “Access by individuals to adequate resources (entitlements) for acquiring appropriate foods for a nutritious diet. Entitlements are defined as the set of all commodity bundles over which a person can establish command given the legal, political, economic and social arrangements of the community in which they live (including traditional rights such as access to common resources)”

• Utilisation: “Utilisation of food through adequate diet, clean water, sanitation and health care to reach a state of nutritional well-being where all physiological needs are met. This brings out the importance of non-food inputs in food security”

• Stability: “To be secure, a population, household or individuals must have access to adequate food at all times. They should not risk losing access to food as a consequence of sudden shocks (e.g. an economic or climatic crisis) or cyclical events (e.g. seasonal food insecurity). The concept of stability can therefore both refer to the availability and access dimensions of food security” 

Two additional dimensions (Food Policy Journal 2022) 

• Sustainability: “food system practices that contribute to long-term regeneration of natural, social, and economic systems, ensuring the food needs of the present generations are met without compromising food needs of future generations”

• Agency: “the capacity of individuals and groups to exercise a degree of control over their own circumstances and to provide meaningful input into governance processes”

Recent discussion (Zurek, Ingram et al 2022) has further broken three of the dimensions (Availability, Access and Utilisation) into three elements, all either explicit or implicit in the World Food Summit definition. The UKFSR considers eight of the nine elements across the 5 themes.

• Food availability is broken down into: Production (how much and which types of food are available through local production); Distribution (how much food is made available [physically moved], in what form, when and to whom); and Exchange: how much of the available food is obtained through exchange mechanisms such as barter, trade, purchase or loans 

• Access to food is broken down into: Affordability (the purchasing power of households or communities relative to the price of food); Allocation (the economic, social and political mechanisms governing when, where and how food can be accessed by consumers); and Preference (social, religious or cultural norms and values that influence consumer demand for certain types of food) 

• Food utilisation is broken down into: Nutritional value (how much of the daily requirements of calories, vitamins, protein, and micronutrients are provided by the food people consume); Social value: the social, religious and cultural functions, and benefits food provides; and Food safety (toxic contamination introduced during producing, processing and packaging, distribution or marketing food; and food-borne diseases such as salmonella and CJD) 

• Stability is the stability of the above three dimensions, which itself is a definition of food security

Mapping the five UKFSR five themes to the six dimensions

The five themes enable the UKFSR to track food security (in its six dimensions) across the whole UK food system. The UK food system is the product of several interconnected systems including global food supply, UK food supply, ecological systems, and the supply chain. Each theme considers a ‘system’ or a ‘cluster of systems’ making up the wider UK food system. The themes apply a range of indicators to the systems under consideration to provide specific food security measures that can be cyclically assessed.

Each theme considers the ‘cross theme’ interconnections of those systems, rather than viewing them in isolation. For example, domestic food production is facilitated by the global supply chain providing fertilisers and energy; the natural ecosystem enabling fertile soils and productivity; the food safety regime that ensures food is safe for consumers to eat; and the demand that makes business viable. Making these links also enables the identification of ‘feedback loops’ and ‘lock-ins’ between human and ecological systems and their various impacts, e.g. on human, animal and plant health (Ericksen, 2008).

The five themes also support the UKFSR to provide an evidence base for policy making. In comparison to the dimensions, the themes more easily correspond with policy areas, while also supporting readers to make strategic links between policy areas. For example, the ‘global food availability’ theme corresponds to a range of areas under foreign policy and the ‘supply chain resilience theme’ corresponds to trade, transport and energy, and other policy areas.

Using the 6-dimensional definition and five theme assessment helps the UKFSR capture the real-world multi-causality of food security. This in turn helps the UKFSR support evidence-based policy decisions that will shape food security on the ground.

No single theme looks at all six dimensions of the food security definition. Instead, there are usually two or three dimensions of focus for each theme depending on the part of the food system being considered. The five themes do not provide equal coverage of the dimensions given measures depend on suitable data being available for the UKFSR’s cyclical reporting. As a guide for readers, the table below maps the UKFSR themes and indicators to the six dimensions they cover. There is extensive coverage of availability, stability, accessibility, and sustainability throughout, while agency is covered less frequently, and in terms of the ‘elements’ under the dimensions, social value is not covered.

Themes and indicators	Food security dimension 6 dimensions (9 elements)
Theme 1: Global food availability
1.1.1 Global food production	Availability (Production)
1.1.2 Global food loss and waste	Availability
1.1.3 Global cereal production	Availability (Production)
1.1.4 Production of global livestock products	Availability (Production)
1.1.5 Global fruit and vegetable production	Availability (Production)
1.1.6 Global seafood production	Availability (Production), Sustainability
1.2.1 Global agricultural total factor productivity	Availability (Production), Sustainability
1.2.2 Global land use change	Availability (Production), Sustainability
1.2.3 Global fertiliser production	Availability (Production), Sustainability
1.2.4 Water availability, usage and quality for global agriculture	Availability (Production), Sustainability
1.3.1 Global stock to consumption ratios	Availability (Distribution), Stability
1.3.2 Global real prices	Accessibility (Affordability), Stability
Case study: The role of exchange rates on food prices in Egypt	Accessibility (Affordability), Stability
1.3.3 Global production internationally traded	Availability (Distribution and Exchange), Stability
Case study: Export restrictions	Availability (Distribution and Exchange), Stability
Case study: The role of maritime trade chokepoints in global food security	Availability (Distribution and Exchange), Stability
1.4.1 Global food security and nutrition	Accessibility (Affordability), Utilisation (Nutritional value)
1.5.1 Global land degradation	Sustainability
1.4.3 Global one health	Utilisation (Food safety), Stability, Sustainability
Theme 2: UK Food Supply Sources
2.1.1 Overall sources of UK food	Availability (Production and Exchange)
2.1.2 Arable products (grain, oilseeds and potatoes)	Availability (Production and Exchange)
2.1.3 Livestock and poultry products (meat, eggs and dairy)	Availability (Production and Exchange), Access (Preference)
2.1.4 Fruits and vegetables	Availability (Production and Exchange), Access (Preference), Sustainability
Case study: Impact of drought and water stress on horticulture production in Spain	Availability (Production and Exchange), Access (Preference), Sustainability
2.1.5 Seafood	Availability (Production and Exchange), Access (Preference), Sustainability
2.2.1 Animal and plant health	Availability (Production), Sustainability
Case study: Colorado beetle	Availability (Production), Sustainability
2.2.2 Food waste	Sustainability
2.2.3 Agricultural productivity	Availability (Production), Sustainability
2.2.4 Land use	Availability (Production), Sustainability
2.2.5 Biodiversity	Sustainability
2.2.6 Soil health	Sustainability
2.2.7 Water quality	Sustainability
2.2.8 Greenhouse gas emissions	Sustainability
2.2.9 Sustainable farming	Sustainability
Theme 3: Food Supply Chain Resilience
3.1.1 Agricultural inputs	Food Availability (Production)
3.1.2 Supply chain inputs	Food Availability (Production)
Case study: Flour fortification and calcium carbonate	Food Availability (Production)
3.1.3 Labour and skills	Food Availability (Production)
3.1.4 Water	Food Availability (Production), Sustainability
Case study: Felixstowe Hydrocycle	Food Availability (Production), Sustainability
3.1.5 Energy	Stability
3.2.1 Transport	Food Availability (Distribution)
3.2.2 Points of entry into the UK	Food availability (Distribution), Access to Food (Allocation)
3.2.3 Import flows	Food Availability (Distribution)
3.3.1 Cyber security	Stability
3.3.2 Diversity of food retailers	Food Availability (Distribution and Exchange), Access to Food (Allocation)
3.3.3 Business resilience	Stability
Theme 4: Food Security at Household Level
4.1.1 Household food security status	Accessibility (Affordability), Stability, Agency
4.1.2 Household spending on food	Accessibility (Affordability), Stability, Agency
4.1.3 Price changes of main food groups	Accessibility (Affordability), Stability
4.1.4 Government support schemes	Accessibility (Affordability, Allocation)
4.1.5 Food aid	Accessibility (Affordability, Allocation)
4.2.1 Physical access to food shops	Accessibility (Allocation), Agency
4.2.2 Online access to food shops	Accessibility (Allocation), Agency
4.3.1 Consumption patterns	Accessibility (Preference), Utilisation (Nutritional value), Sustainability, Agency
4.3.2 Healthy diet	Accessibility (Affordability and Preference), Utilisation (Nutritional value)
Case study: The lived experience of food insecurity and its impact on health	Accessibility (Affordability and Preference), Utilisation (Nutritional value)
4.3.3 Sustainable diet	Sustainability
Theme 5: Food Safety and Consumer Confidence
Indicator 5.1.1 Consumer confidence in the food systems and its regulation	Accessibility (Affordability and Preference), Utilisation (Food safety), Agency
Indicator 5.1.2 Consumer concerns	Accessibility (Affordability and    Preference), Utilisation (Nutritional value and Food Safety), Agency
Case study –Monitoring consumers’ food safety behaviour	Accessibility (Affordability and    Preference), Utilisation (Nutritional value and Food Safety), Agency
Indicator 5.2.1 Surveillance Sampling	Utilisation (Food Safety)
Case study –The Food Authenticity Network	Utilisation (Food Safety)
Indicator 5.2.2 Food safety incidents, alerts, and recalls	Utilisation (Food Safety)
Case study 1: Listeria monocytogenes outbreak linked to smoked fish	Utilisation (Food Safety)
Case study 2: Determining increased risk of vibrio in seafood linked to climate change	Utilisation (Food Safety)
Indicator 5.2.3 Foodborne pathogen surveillance	Utilisation (Food Safety)
Indicator 5.2.4 Foodborne disease outbreak surveillance	Utilisation (Food Safety)
Indicator 5.2.5 Food Crime	Utilisation (Food Safety)
Case study 1 – Strengthening the Lines of Defence against Food Crime	Utilisation (Food Safety)
Case study 2 – Disrupting the ‘smokie’ trade	Utilisation (Food Safety)
Indicator 5.3.1 Food business compliance and food hygiene regulation	Utilisation (Food Safety)
Indicator 5.3.2 Safety of non-EU imports	Access (Allocation), Utilisation (Food Safety)

Annex III

Climate Change Scenarios

Representative concentration pathways

Representative concentration pathways (RCPs) are defined in terms of the amount of warming caused to the Earth from the imbalance between the energy received from the sun and the energy reflected back to space. The effect of this imbalance is called a forcing. Since greenhouse gases persist in the atmosphere, higher levels of greenhouse gas emissions are associated with a greater imbalance, greater forcing and hence more warming.

The four RCPs used in the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC, ‘Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report’, 2014), and the climate model simulations performed as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) initiative, are:

• RCP8.5: High forcing scenario. This corresponds to high greenhouse gas emissions and negligible efforts to mitigate them. This is the highest concentration scenario modelled.

• RCP6.0: Medium-high forcing scenario.

• RCP4.5: Medium-low forcing scenario.

• RCP2.6: Low forcing scenario. This scenario involves aggressive mitigation with immediate and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, resulting in a significant reduction in CO~2~ concentrations.

Shared socio-economic pathways

In the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report (IPCC, Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report’, 2023), and the climate model simulations performed as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) initiative, climate change scenarios are expressed in terms of shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). The SSPs reflect different trends in social, economic, and environmental developments such as population, economic growth, and urbanisation, split into five ‘narratives’.

The five SSP narratives are combined with the forcing-driven RCPs to characterise plausible climatic change under alternative societal development pathways. The notation for the combined climate change scenarios incorporates both the SSP and the RCP. For example, the lowest forcing scenario (RCP2.6) is only achievable under the SSP1 narrative (Sustainability) and the scenario for this combination is referred to as ‘SSP1-2.6’. Some of the SSPs are broadly comparable with the previous generation of RCPs. For example, SSP5-8.5 is comparable with the RCP8.5 scenario; SSP2-4.5 is comparable with the RCP4.5 scenario; and SSP1-2.6 is comparable with the RCP2.6 scenario.

The SSP1-2.6 scenario most closely resembles the 2°C warming target. SSP5-8.5 is the worst-case scenario in terms of climatic change. The SSP most representative of current conditions is SSP2: Middle of the Road. Therefore, the SSP2-4.5 scenario might be the one most representative of the scenario we are following under current policy. However, most policy-relevant research has previously used the highest emissions pathway, RCP8.5 as the worst-case-scenario, and only one of the SSPs reaches those levels of emissions – SSP5: Fossil-fuelled Development.

Annex IV

Theme Appendices

Theme 5: Food Safety and Consumer Confidence

5.1.1 Consumer confidence

Food and You 2

The Food Standards Agency has been conducting the Food and You 2 survey twice a year since July 2020. The survey is conducted with adults (aged 16 years or over) living in households in England, Wales and Northern Ireland. Households are selected at random with approximately 5,800 adults from around 4,000 households taking part in each survey. Respondents can take part online or via post. More detail on the survey methodology can be found in the technical report.

Food in Scotland

The Food in Scotland Consumer Tracker Survey monitors attitudes, knowledge and reported behaviours relating to food. The Tracker is used to identify changes in behaviours and attitudes over time and since 2015 the survey has been undertaken bi-annually in July and December.

The research methodology is consistent across research waves to ensure comparability and samples (of respondents surveyed) is approximately 1,000 Scottish adults and is representative of the Scottish population, with data weighted on key demographics to match previous waves for waves 11-16. Fieldwork for Wave 17 was carried out during December 2023. The online self-completion survey ranged between 25-30 minutes for Waves 11-16. Wave 17 saw a shorter 7 minute survey length. Unlike with previous waves, not all results are directly comparable due to changes in some of the questions.

Due to methodological differences between the Food and You 2 survey and Food in Scotland Consumer Tracker Survey, these data sources are not directly comparable. For this reason, data from the two surveys have been reported separately.

5.2.1 Surveillance sampling

Veterinary medicines directorate (VMD) sampling programmes:

Legislative Framework:

Testing for residues in products of animal original (POAO) is an internationally recognised official control; it is a trade facilitating sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) measure which is critical to ensuring the safety of produce to both domestic consumers as well as export markets. In practice, the VMD operates a programme of sampling and testing which is equivalent with the official control requirements outlined in Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2022/1646 (for prohibited substances and veterinary medicines) and Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2022/932 (for contaminants). The sampling requirements are implemented in GB by the Animals and Animal Products Regulations of 2015 in GB, as well as the assimilated Official Controls Regulations, or OCR (2017/625). Under this collective suite of legislation, the VMD (and the agencies they work with) have the power to collect samples throughout the calendar year, testing them for a range of compounds, reflecting what is available and not available for veterinary medicinal use. The number of routine samples is determined by the throughput data based on the criteria set in the legislation.

Investigation into Residues Violations:

All residues violations (‘non-compliances’) identified under the GB RCP are investigated on-farm, and provision for this enforcement action is given the by the aforementioned Animal & Animal Product Regulations. In such cases, field staff will conduct a back-trace to the farm of origin to identify the cause of any residues issues. Food safety risk assessments are conducted for each residues violation identified by the Food Incidents Teams at FSA and FSS. In the majority of cases, non-compliances result from human error or are first time offences; in such instances advice is provided to the farmer to assist in avoiding a re-occurrence in the future. In more serious cases where a producer is either a repeat offender or found to be negligent (or the use of an unauthorised/prohibited substance is identified) the animals can be destroyed without any compensation to the farmer and, in the most severe cases, enforcement notices can be issued and can lead to prosecution.

• A list of the veterinary medicines approved for use in the United Kingdom can be found in the VMD’s Product Information Database, or PID.

• A list of veterinary medicine MRLs in Great Britain can be found in the VMD’s MRL list. Within Table 2 of this document, a list of Prohibited Substances can be found.

• A list of contaminant MRLs (including limits for cadmium, lead, as well as dioxins and PCBs) can be found in assimilated Regulation 1881/2006, and pesticide MRLs within the Health & Safety Executives GB pesticide database.

5.2.2: Incidents, Alerts Recalls

Both the UK Food Law Code of Practice (FLCoP) and Scottish FLCoP, outline the definition of a food incident and the roles and responsibilities of the FSA, FSS and enforcement authorities, respectively. Both FLCoPs define a food incident as “any event where, based on the information available, there are concerns about actual or suspected threats to the safety, quality or integrity of food that could require intervention to protect consumers’ interests.” The Feed Law Code of Practice, which covers England, Wales and Northern Ireland, similarly defines feed incidents.

The potential hazard being investigated by FSA and FSS determines the incident category. The reporting systems differ between regulators so it is possible for incidents to have different categorisations based upon the area of concern, which may include potential concern where there is no actual risk to the safety, quality or integrity of the food and feed identified.

The food, feed and drink supply chains are complex and involve numerous food chain actors from primary producers to processors, packing providers, transporters and retailers. There are multiple points in the supply chain where potential hazards can be detected and communicated to regulators who in turn, alert consumers.

Fluctuation in incidents numbers is common, and subject to many factors such as an introduction of new regulations, trends in consumer behaviours, or a persistent ongoing issue. The number of incidents does not reflect the longevity or complexity of the investigation.

5.2.2 Case study 2: Determining increased risk of Vibrio in seafood linked to climate change

A ‘signal’ refers to information on the safety, quality or integrity of a food, feed or food contact material which may be a potential risk to the UK food chain.

5.2.5 Food Crime

National Disruptions are a validated law enforcement framework that measure when the NFCU has had a direct impact on serious organized food crime relating to UK food supply chains, such as successfully securing prosecutions against food criminals.

This validated law enforcement framework process is based on the National Serious Organised Crime Disruption process. Disruptions are uploaded onto a system which stores records of serious and organised crime disruption activity from across the law enforcement community.

NFCU Outcomes: Any action led, supported or co-ordinated by the NFCU that falls short of a national disruption but still:

• Develops capacity and capability to identify and deal with food crime or;

• Deters potential offenders from acting dishonestly or;

• Improves awareness of vulnerabilities and promotes the taking of action to improve protection thereof.

About the UK Food Security Report

The UK Food Security Report (UKFSR) sets out an analysis of statistical data relating to food security in the UK. It fulfils a duty under Part 2, Chapter 1 (Section 19) of the Agriculture Act 2020 to prepare and lay before Parliament at least once every three years “a report containing an analysis on statistical data relating to food security in the United Kingdom”.

The UKFSR examines past, current, and future trends relevant to food security to present a full and impartial analysis of UK food security. It draws on a broad range of published data from official, administrative, academic, intergovernmental and wider sources.

The UKFSR is intended as an independent evidence base to inform users rather than a policy or strategy. In practice this means that it provides government, Parliament, food chain stakeholders and the wider public with the data and analysis needed to monitor UK food security and develop effective responses to issues.

Contact and feedback

Enquiries to: foodsecurityreport@defra.gov.uk

You can also contact us via Twitter/X: @DefraStats

We want to understand the uses that readers make of this report. To help us ensure that future versions are better for you, please answer our short questionnaire to send us feedback.

What we will do with this data

Production team: Michael Archer, Lewis Bird, Jess Booth, Jane Brown, Rebecca Clutterbuck, Grant Davies, Simon Dixon, Nikita Driver, Tom George, Gayle Griffiths, Evangeline Hopper, Helen Jamieson, Ronald Kasoka, Matt Keating, Sarath Kizhakkoott, Gurjeevan Landa, Rachel Latham, David Lee, James LePage, Ian Lonsdale, Claire Manley (FSA), Eszter Palotai, Maria Prokopiou, Erica Pufall (FSA), Alexis Rampa, Lewis Ratcliffe, Leigh Riley, Karen Robertson (FSS), Danny Roff, William Ryle-Hodges, Daniel Scott, Chris Silwood, Swati Singh (FSA), Carine Valarche, Maisie Wilson, Isabella Worth

Acknowledgements

We are extremely grateful to the following for their expert contributions and guidance throughout the synthesis of this Report, helping to ensure it delivers a thorough analysis of a robust evidence base:

• Professor Angelina Sanderson Bellamy, University of the West of England Bristol

• Professor Tim Benton, Chatham House

• Dr Tom D. Breeze, University of Reading

• Dr Jonathan Brooks, Honorary Senior Research Fellow, University of Exeter Business School

• Professor Katrina Campbell, Institute for Global Food Security, School of Biological Sciences, Queen’s University Belfast

• Professor Bob Doherty (Dean and Principal Investigator of FixOurFood), School for Business and Society, University of York

• Selvarani Elahi MBE, UK Deputy Government Chemist, LGC

• Dr Pete Falloon, Met Office/University of Bristol

• Professor Lynn Frewer, Centre for Rural Economy, Newcastle University

• Dr Kenisha Garnett, Cranfield University

• Professor Emeritus Peter J. Gregory, School of Agriculture, Policy & Development, University of Reading

• Dr Saher Hasnain, Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford

• Alan Hayes, Strategic Advisor, Future Strategy

• Dr John Ingram, Food Systems Transformation Programme, University of Oxford

• Professor Peter Jackson, Institute for Sustainable Food, University of Sheffield

• Professor Alexandra Johnstone, The Rowett Institute, University of Aberdeen

• Dr Hannah Lambie-Mumford, Department of Politics and International Relations, University of Sheffield

• Dr Marta Lonnie, The Rowett Institute, School of Medicine, Medical Sciences & Nutrition, University of Aberdeen

• Dr Rachel Loopstra, Department of Public Health, Policy and Systems, University of Liverpool

• Dr Katie McDermott, University of Leeds

• Dr Ian Noble, Chair of UK Food Sector Advisory Group – Innovate UK

• Dr Kelly Parsons, MRC Epidemiology Unit, University of Cambridge

• Dr Maddy Power (Assistant Professor), Wellcome Trust Research Fellow, Department of Health Sciences, University of York

• Dr Michelle Thomas, University of Reading

• Professor Carol Wagstaff, University of Reading

Return to Contents Page

Return to the United Kingdom Food Security 2024 home page to download the data for charts