Weekly all-cause mortality surveillance (week 46 report, up to week 42 data)
Updated 7 September 2023
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In week 42 of 2022, statistically significant excess all-cause mortality by week of death was observed overall in England through the EuroMOMO algorithm. In the devolved administrations, statistically significant excess all-cause mortality for all ages was observed for Northern Ireland and Scotland in week 42. No statistically significant all-cause mortality was observed in Wales for week 42.
Note that level 3 heat-health alerts were issued for 17 to 18 June, 11 to 21 July, and 9 to 16 August 2022, and a level 4 heat-health alert was issued for 18 to 19 July 2022.
Excess all-cause (EuroMOMO) mortality in subpopulations, UK
In week 42 of 2022 in England, statistically significant excess mortality by week of death above the 2 z-score threshold was seen overall and in certain age groups and regions, after correcting General Register Office (GRO) disaggregate data for reporting delay with the standardised EuroMOMO algorithm (Figure 1). Statistically significant excess mortality was seen in the 15 to 64 years and 65 years plus age groups and in the North East, North West, Yorkshire and Humber, West Midlands, East of England and South East regions.
In the devolved administrations, statistically significant excess all-cause mortality for all ages was observed for Northern Ireland and Scotland in week 42. No statistically significant all-cause mortality was observed in Wales for week 42.
This data is provisional due to the time delay in registration, so numbers may vary from week to week.
Data presented in this week’s report supersedes data presented in reports from previous weeks.
Figure 1: Weekly observed and expected number of all-cause deaths in all ages, with the dominant circulating respiratory virus, England, 2017 to week 42 2022
Note: The recent weeks’ data are estimates which may be subject to registration delay corrections and therefore should be interpreted with caution. These estimates may differ substantially from future reports as more deaths are registered.
Table 1: Excess mortality by age group, England*
| Age group (years) | Excess detected in week 42 2022? | Weeks with excess since week 20 2022 |
|---|---|---|
| <5 | No | 24, 29 |
| 5 to 14 | No | NA |
| 15 to 64 | Yes | 21, 24 to 29, 31 to 33, 35, 38 to 42 |
| 65+ | Yes | 23 to 30, 32 to 33, 38 to 42 |
Table 2: Excess mortality by UK country, for all ages*
| Country | Excess detected in week 42 2022? | Weeks with excess since week 20 2022 |
|---|---|---|
| England | Yes | 23 to 33, 38 to 42 |
| Wales | No | 28 to 29, 32 |
| Northern Ireland | Yes | 29, 42 |
| Scotland | Yes | 40, 42 |
*Excess mortality is calculated as the observed minus the expected number of deaths in weeks above threshold.
**NA refers to no excess seen.
Note: separate total and age-specific models are run for England, which may lead to discrepancies between tables 1 and 2.
All-cause death registrations (ONS), England and Wales
The provisional number of weekly deaths registered in England and Wales is published online by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
Data interpretation and further information
Seasonal mortality is seen each year in England and Wales, with a higher number of deaths in winter months compared with the summer. Additionally, peaks of mortality above this expected higher level typically occur in winter, most commonly the result of factors such as cold snaps and increased circulation of respiratory viruses, in particular influenza and in summer occasionally because of heatwaves.
This weekly mortality surveillance aims to detect and report acute significant weekly excess mortality above normal seasonal levels in a timely fashion. Excess mortality is defined as a significant (above the upper 2 z-score threshold) number of deaths reported over that expected for a given point in the year, allowing for weekly variation in the number of deaths. A z-score is a statistical measure of how many standard deviations above the baseline threshold the number of deaths were. For example, a z-score of 2 means that the number of deaths were 2 standard deviations above the baseline threshold.
The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic period is excluded from the baseline thresholds calculation. Excess mortality triggers further investigation of spikes and informs any public health responses.
The aim is not to assess general mortality trends or precisely estimate the excess attributable to different factors, although some end-of-winter estimates and more in-depth analyses (by age, geography, and so on) are undertaken.
Separate to the calculations presented in this report, excess winter deaths (EWD), comparing the number of deaths in the winter period with the non-winter period, are calculated by the ONS.
Other measures of excess mortality published by UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) or Office for Health Improvement and Disparities (OHID) are the Fingertip excess mortality in England report, which uses ONS death registration data, and the UKHSA daily GRO mortality model which is published in the weekly influenza and COVID-19 surveillance report.