Weekly all-cause mortality surveillance (week 7 report, up to week 3 2024 data)
Updated 18 July 2024
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In week 3 of 2024, statistically significant excess all-cause mortality was not observed through the EuroMOMO algorithm:
- by week of death overall in England
- in Northern Ireland or Wales
A statistically significant excess all-cause mortality was observed through the EuroMOMO algorithm in Scotland in week 3.
Note that an amber heat-health alert was issued for 9 to 13 June and for 3 to 12 September 2023.
Excess all-cause (EuroMOMO) mortality in subpopulations, UK
In England, statistically significant excess mortality by week of death above the 2 z-score threshold was not seen overall in week 3 of 2024, nor in any region or age group. This was after correcting General Register Office (GRO) disaggregate data for reporting delay with the standardised EuroMOMO algorithm (Figure 1).
In the devolved administrations, a statistically significant excess all-cause mortality for all ages was observed in Scotland in week 3. No statistically significant excess all-cause mortality for all ages was observed in Northern Ireland or Wales.
This data is provisional because of the time delay in registration, so numbers may vary from week to week.
Data presented in this week’s report supersedes data presented in reports from previous weeks.
Figure 1: Weekly observed and expected number of all-cause deaths in all ages, with the dominant circulating respiratory virus, England, 2017 to week 3 2024
Note: the recent weeks’ data are estimates which may be subject to registration delay corrections and therefore should be interpreted with caution. These estimates may differ substantially from future reports as more deaths are registered.
Table 1: Excess mortality by age group, England*
| Age group (years) | Excess detected in week 3 2024? | Weeks with excess since week 20 2023 |
|---|---|---|
| Under 5 | No | Weeks 41, 49 to 50 |
| 5 to 14 | No | Weeks 43, 2 |
| 15 to 64 | No | None |
| 65 and over | No | None |
Table 2: Excess mortality by UK country, for all ages*
| Country | Excess detected in week 3 2024? | Weeks with excess since week 20 2023 |
|---|---|---|
| England | No | None |
| Wales | No | None |
| Northern Ireland | No | Week 44 |
| Scotland | Yes | Weeks 1, 3 |
*Excess mortality is calculated as the observed minus the expected number of deaths in weeks above threshold.
Note: separate total and age-specific models are run for England, which may lead to discrepancies between tables 1 and 2.
All-cause death registrations (ONS), England and Wales
The provisional number of weekly deaths registered in England and Wales is published online by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
Data interpretation and further information
Seasonal mortality is seen each year, with a higher number of deaths in winter months compared with the summer. Additionally, peaks of mortality above this expected higher level typically occur in winter, most commonly the result of factors such as cold snaps and increased circulation of respiratory viruses, in particular influenza. In summer, peaks occasionally occur because of heatwaves.
This weekly mortality surveillance aims to detect and report acute significant weekly excess mortality above normal seasonal levels in a timely fashion. Excess mortality is defined as a significant (above the upper 2 z-score threshold) number of deaths reported over that expected for a given point in the year, allowing for weekly variation in the number of deaths.
The COVID-19 pandemic period from March 2020 to March 2022 is excluded from the baseline thresholds calculation. Excess mortality triggers further investigation of spikes and informs any public health responses.
The aim is not to assess general mortality trends or precisely estimate the excess attributable to different factors – although some end-of-winter estimates and more in-depth analyses (including by age and geography) are undertaken.
Separate to the calculations presented in this report, excess winter deaths (EWD), where the number of deaths in the winter period is compared with the non-winter period, are calculated by the ONS.
Other measures of excess mortality published by the Office for Health Improvement and Disparities (OHID) are included in the excess mortality in England and English regions report, which uses ONS death registration data.
Glossary
Z-score
A z-score is a statistical measure of how many standard deviations above the baseline threshold the number of deaths was. For example, a z-score of 2 means that the number of deaths was 2 standard deviations above the baseline threshold.