Guidance

Heat summary - Chapter 1: state of the UK past and future climate

This page summarises Chapter 1 of the Health effects of Climate Change (HECC) report with a focus on the impact of how the UK's climate is changing with regards to heat.

Applies to England

Key resources for HECC Chapter 1:

Heat summary of Chapter 1

Global average temperatures have increased by 1.1 to 1.2°C compared to pre-industrial levels.

Extreme weather events are occurring more frequently because of warming global temperatures. For areas of land, there is a high confidence that temperatures and extreme heat will increase for all areas globally.

In the UK, recent decades have been warmer, wetter and sunnier than in the 20th Century.

Since 2002, the UK has experienced its 10 warmest years on record. In 2022, a temperature of 40.3°C was recorded for the first time in the UK. All 3 of the heatwaves that occurred during this year contributed to an estimated 2,839 excess deaths for those aged 65 and over. Extreme heat events will likely become more frequent, with some climate projections suggesting that hot summer days could warm by 3.8 to 6.8°C by the 2070s under a high emissions scenario. This is accompanied by an increase in the frequency of hot spells, largely in the South-East of the UK.

The takeaway message from latest United Kingdom Climate Projections (UKCP18) model is that “By the end of the 21st Century, all areas of the UK are projected to be warmer, more so in summer than in winter’. Additionally, the number, duration and likelihood of heatwaves are projected to increase in the future.

Updates to this page

Published 19 December 2024

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