Heat summary - Chapter 7: climate and infectious diseases
This page summarises Chapter 7 of the Health Effects of Climate Change (HECC) report with a focus on the impact of heat on climate and infectious diseases. This is part of the science and stats section for the hazard: heat.
Applies to England
CCHS navigation menu:
CCHS homepage
Topic: climate-related hazards
Hazard: all climate-related hazards, heat
Part of: heat summary - full HECC report
Key resources for HECC Chapter 7:
- Heat summary - Chapter 7: climate and infectious diseases
- Chapter 7 full report (pdf)
Heat summary of Chapter 7
Many infectious diseases are climate sensitive. The weather can change the number of pathogens within our environments and how easy it is for people to get sick.
Warmer temperatures can alter the geographical distribution of infectious diseases and extend the transmission periods of some diseases.
Climate impacts ecological factors, such as the environment in which infectious agents live and multiply. If an organism’s biology is impacted by climatic and ecological factors, its ranges and seasonality may be affected.
There are lots of airborne infections that have distinct seasonal cycles, but the impact of climate change on these is unclear. One reason for this is routine vaccination programmes.
The chapter analyses evidence for future impacts of climate change on several types of virus. There is currently insufficient evidence regarding the impact of climate change in the UK, to the following:
- Astrovirus
- Sapovirus
There is currently mixed evidence regarding the impact of climate change in the UK, to the following:
- Norovirus
- Respiratory syncytial virus
- Rotavirus
Research suggests that other factors, aside from climate change, will have a greater influence on virus burden and incidence, for the following:
- Adenovirus
- Influenza
The picture is also complicated across bacteria. More research is needed to determine how climate change might impact the following bacteria:
- Campolobacteriosis
- Clostridium perfringens
- Clostriditum perfringens
- Listeria monocytogenes
- Yersinia enterocolitia
- Leptospirosis
It is possible that Legionella pneumophila and Shigellosis will thrive under a warmer UK climate, and STEC / VTEC bacteria groups, which thrive in heatwave temperatures, will increase. Similarly, evidence suggests that Salmonellosis will result in more cases of salmonella – however this is being combatted by improvements in food hygiene and reducing the pathogen levels in major food groups in the UK. The Vibrosis bacteria group, which includes the bacteria that causes cholera, may become more prevalent as coastal flooding expands areas of coastal brackish environments.
Parasitic diseases such as Cyclosporiasis are linked to travel from outside the UK and there is little evidence about how increases in outbreaks in other countries could impact UK cases. Studies have shown that Cryptosporidiosis cases can increase with temperature and more extreme winter rainfall. Finally, Giardiasis could have a longer peak with warmer summer temperatures but more UK-specific research is needed here.
Climate impacts ecological factors, such as the environment in which infectious agents live and multiply. If an organism’s biology is impacted by climatic and ecological factors, its ranges and seasonality may be affected. Warmer temperatures can alter the geographical distribution of infectious diseases and extend the transmission periods of some diseases. A changing climate also has the ability to change modes of disease transmission (through altering vector species like rodents), impact human behaviour (through changes in food preparation habits during warmer weather) and additionally lead to the emergence of new pathogen species.
There is emerging evidence to suggest that antimicrobial resistance might be influenced by climate change. Warmer temperatures could speed up bacterial growth and expand their geographical ranges. This makes the appearance of resistant bacteria more likely.