Heat summary - Heat mortality monitoring reports
Since 2016, annual reports on the surveillance of mortality during periods of heatwave have been published.
Applies to England
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Topic: climate-related hazards
Hazard: all climate-related hazards, heat
Key resources for heat mortality monitoring reports:
- Heat summary - all heat mortality monitoring reports
- Reports for 2020 onwards
- Reports for 2016 to 2019
More content:
Summary
The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) (and previously Public Health England) have published annual heat mortality monitoring reports each year since 2016. The reports give estimates of heat-associated deaths during heat episodes in each summer. Over this period, we have observed a general trend of increasing heat episode days and increasing heat-associated deaths.
Figure 1. The estimated total heat-associated deaths (blue bars) and the number of days which met the UKHSA definition of heat episode (red line) from 2016 to 2023 in England
2022, which saw the highest recorded temperature in England at 40.3°C, had the highest number of heat-associated deaths since recording began of 2,985 deaths (95% Confidence Interval: 2,258 to 3,712) over five heat episodes.
The estimates for each year can be found in the annual reports on the UKHSA website for 2020 onwards and for 2016-2019. Estimates are broken down by region and age group.
Analysis of heat-associated mortality is used by UKHSA to monitor progress on the goals of the Adverse Weather and Health Plan, and to inform continuous improvement to the Weather-Health Alerting system.
Developments to the reporting
For the 2022 report onwards, we have reported modelled heat-associated mortality as well as observed heat-associated mortality. The modelled figures are an estimate of the number of deaths expected in each heat episode, based on the historic temperature-mortality relationship in England in the last five years. Comparing observed mortality with the modelled predictions helps us to understand the range of factors, beyond temperatures, which can affect mortality during heat episodes.
Further information on mortality statistics
Measuring excess mortality: a guide to the main reports is a guide to the major publications related to excess deaths in the UK, who produces them and links to the methods and analysis.