Selecting tree seeds for current and future climates in order to maintain productivity
The 'climate matching tool' helps you consider which tree seeds to plant in light of the changing climate.
The Forestry Commission’s Managing England Woodlands in a climate emergency guide states that with the current projections, global warming is projected to increase by a further degree within the next 2 decades. However, global temperatures could rise to 4°C above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century, and summer maximum temperatures could rise by up to 10°C in parts of England. It is a key principle of this guidance that we need to plan and plant appropriately for both the current and future climates.
The climate matching tool allows you to see how the climatic envelope will change over time at any location by showing analogue climates across the UK and Europe. It gives an indication of the climate our trees are likely to experience in the future. This can help practitioners to consider the selection of seed from trees that are growing successfully in an environment that England’s may look like in the future.
The climate matching tool should be seen as complementary to the Ecological Site Classification tree selection tool, which shows how trees will perform in a future climate but does not take into account adaptation. Seed sourced from future climate analogues may well help maintain productivity and offer adaptive capacity. You can find out more about this on pages 13, 14 and 15 of the Managing England Woodlands in a climate emergency guide.
The advanced version of the climate matching tool also covers the Pacific Northwest of America, allowing you to explore site types associated with the native and exotic species widely used in British forestry. The tool can also be used to test the potential distribution of pests and diseases as they adapt their range under climate change.
Underpinning the tool is UKCP18 climate data at 12km resolution using the RCP8.5 pathway in future projections. Sites that are similar to one another are identified on the basis of the mean monthly temperature, diurnal temperature range and rainfall. Given the scale of the data, users will also need to consider local site characteristics (such as topography and soil) in their decision making.
This climate matching tool is the first Forest Research product to utilise the UKCP18 climate projections and has been developed collaboratively with UK and international partners.