International outreach work of the 2050 Calculator
The 2050 Calculator approach is being adapted and developed further by teams outside of the UK.
Overview
The International 2050 Calculator Programme is a technical assistance programme, funded by UK International Climate Finance (ICF), a ring-fenced portion of the Official Development Assistance (ODA) budget for climate change, through the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ). The programme supports ODA-eligible countries develop their own interactive 2050 Calculator energy and emissions tools. Since 2012, UK ICF has supported the creation of 18 national and 6 regional 2050 Calculators, which have helped develop and enhance Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and implementation plans, and inform national and sub-national climate plans and policies.
The 2050 Calculator is a uniquely open, transparent, and interactive energy model, originally developed by the UK government to it meet its legally binding emissions reductions commitments under the 2008 Climate Change Act in an evidence-based way. Uncertainty about what technologies would be available in the future led the team to build a new tool to explore all available options, with a focus on engineering as opposed to simply using existing economic models. A simplified My2050 Calculator was also created for public use with over 17,000 people submitting pathways, providing a unique insight into public opinion on the energy transition.
Openness and transparency
The 2050 Calculator supports the debate on options for reducing emissions and tackling other challenges related to energy demand and supply. The principles of openness and inclusivity are central to the 2050 Calculator design and effectiveness.
The calculator is a multi-sectoral energy systems model that enables anyone to quickly model the impact of different policy options. The calculator is designed to make the data and assumptions behind the model easily accessible and relevant to civil society, academia, and the public.
Providing this common knowledge basis and shared language for different stakeholders matters because tackling climate change requires a holistic, whole-systems approach which brings all stakeholders to the table. In 2013 the 2050 Calculator won the 2013 Civil Service Award for Analysis and Use of Evidence.
In December 2020, the UK updated it’s 2050 Calculator, named the ‘Mackay Calculator’ after the late Sir David Mackay. The new model can forecast up to 2100 and allows users to change the time that technologies are rolled out and look at net zero pathways. There’s also a new My2050 game for public use.
The 2050 Calculator Family: 3 levels of complexity
How to build a 2050 calculator: guidance
The (updated April 2023) shares the process of building a 2050 Calculator, step by step, based on the experiences of teams around the world who have already built their own Calculators.
Compared to most energy models, a 2050 Calculator is relatively straightforward to build, use, and understand. The tool is designed to be as inclusive as possible, with the code open source and excel based, and the outputs easily digestible by audiences of varying technical capabilities; however, each city, region, or country will have its own specific challenges.
2050 Calculator International Programme
In 2012, supported by £3.1 million of UK ICF, the International 2050 Calculator Programme launched in Bangladesh, Brazil, Colombia, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Nigeria, South Africa, Thailand and Vietnam with the aim of supporting these 10 countries develop their own 2050 Calculator models to map scenarios to reach net-zero. These 2050 Calculator models have led to several policy and societal impacts:
- India, Colombia, Vietnam, and Nigeria used their Calculators to develop their NDCs in response to the Paris Agreement in 2015
- South Africa incorporated my 2050 into their school curriculum Vietnam used their Calculator for their Power Development Plan, and update (2015 and 2022)
- India used their version to develop their draft National Energy Policy
In 2018, the 2050 Calculator programme was extended, with an additional £3.1 million of UK ICF. This new funding provided for up to four additional countries to receive support, and additional support to the existing countries. Since 2018, the UK government has supported Colombia, India, Kenya, Malaysia, Nigeria, the Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam to develop and update their 2050 Calculators.
It is expected that the completed and updated 2050 Calculators continue to support and inform governments develop policies and plans that enable and accelerate reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.
The 2050 Calculator programme is delivered on behalf of DESNZ by a consortium of delivery partners led by Mott MacDonald, and including Imperial College London, Climact, and Ricardo Energy & Environment. The programme either works directly with partner country governments, or through in-country implementing partners for context-led delivery.
The programme has been successful in spurring the development and adoption of the 2050 Calculator methodology beyond those countries supported directly by UK ICF. To date, 67 countries, territories and cities are covered by 2050 Calculators.
Case studies
Here are some of the calculators developed under the 2050 Calculator Programme. See the full suite of completed calculators.
Colombia
First launched in 2015, Colombia’s 2050 Calculator supported development of Colombia’s NDC in 2016. The UK is providing ongoing support to Colombia’s Ministerio de Ambiente y Desarrollo Sostenible (Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development) to maintain the Colombia 2050 Calculator and enable it to continue to inform Colombia’s net zero journey.
Kenya
The Kenya Ministry of Energy, with support from Strathmore University, delivered the Kenya Carbon Emission Reduction Tool (KCERT) in 2022. It is the first 2050 Calculator in East Africa, and will help Kenya plan to meet their updated NDC commitments, including to abate GHG emissions by 32% compared to the business-as-usual scenario in 2030. It is hoped the KCERT will encourage wider adoption of the 2050 Calculator methodology among countries in East Africa.
Nigeria
Launched in 2021, the Nigeria Energy Calculator 2050 (NECAL 2050) was implemented by the Energy Commission of Nigeria. NECAL 2050 is expected to facilitate policy, academic and public debate about possible future pathways for Nigeria’s demand and supply, and GHG emissions and is being updated to align with Nigeria’s recently announced 2060 net zero goal.
South Africa
Launched in 2014, the South African Department of Environmental Affairs launched the South Africa 2050 Calculator and webtool. The webtool is an educational tool used as part of a major national campaign to promote environmental awareness in young people.
Vietnam
Development of Vietnam’s first calculator began in 2012, with implementation by the Ministry of Industry and Trade. This initial Calculator helped the energy sector in Vietnam set greenhouse gas emission reduction targets and identify realistic solutions which support the implementation of Vietnam’s NDC. In 2021, an updated version of the 2050 Calculator energy and emissions model was launched. This new model reflects latest policies, ongoing efforts in energy supply and demand, and has contributed to the Power Development Plan 8 and Vietnam’s updated NDC.
Further information
Updates to this page
Last updated 29 August 2023 + show all updates
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Added How to Build a 2050 Calculator Guide.
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Updated to include country calculator links and more information on phase II of programme (2019–2023).
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Updated with latest country calculator links.
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First published.