Economic Fluctuations in Sub-Saharan Africa

This study compares business cycle fluctuations in Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries vis-à-vis the rest of the world

From:
Department for International Development
Published
5 March 2018
Document Type:
Working Paper
Theme:
Economic Growth
Authors:
Melina, G, Portillo, R.A.

Abstract

The authors compare business cycle fluctuations in Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries vis-à-vis the rest of the world. The main results are as follows:

  1. African economies stand out by their macroeconomic volatility, which is is reflected in the volatility of output and other macro variables

  2. inflation and output tend to be negatively correlated

  3. unlike advanced economies and emerging markets (EMs), trade balances and current accounts are acyclical in SSA

  4. the volatility of consumption and investment relative to GDP is larger than in other countries

  5. the cyclicality of consumption and investment is smaller than in advanced economies and EMs; (vi) there is little comovement between consumption and investment; (vii) consumption and investment are strongly positively correlated with imports.

This work is part of the ‘Macroeconomics in Low-income countries’ programme

Citation

Giovanni Melina, Rafael A Portillo (2018) Economic Fluctuations in Sub-Saharan Africa. IMF Working Paper No. 18/40

Economic Fluctuations in Sub-Saharan Africa

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Published 5 March 2018
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