Fragmented transitions in the context of competitive regionalism: the case of Sudan
Sudan is undergoing a twin transition, shifting from both armed conflict and authoritarian rule.
Abstract
Findings
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Sudan is undergoing a twin transition, shifting from both armed conflict and authoritarian rule. Both processes are intertwined and substantially impacted by a fragmented regional constellation.
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The regional and international constellation around Sudan provides a difficult and non-conducive environment for the Sudanese twin transition. Western partners prioritise regional stability over the fragile Sudanese democratic transition.
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Multilateral actors are bound by strict mandates and therefore focus on facilitating negotiations with the military regime, an approach widely rejected among the opposition.
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Whilst regional actors support stability in Sudan, they appear to have little interest in a successful democratic transition and prefer to work with military counterparts and more autocratic systems of rule.
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Regional dynamics are complex and unpredictable. International as well as Sudanese actors have to constantly work on their positioning within a fluid and flexible dynamic, and to forge and maintain alliances within the regional settlement.
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Stability in Sudan remains the most important goal that unites all international partners.
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If Western actors wish to have an influence on Sudan’s twin transition, they will need to take more risks with foreign policies, and challenge regional allies.
Citation
Pospisil, J. and Jenner, A. Fragmented Transitions in the Context of Competitive Regionalism: The Case of Sudan (PeaceRep Report: Global Transitions Series). PeaceRep: The Peace and Conflict Resolution Evidence Platform, University of Edinburgh 2022
Links
Fragmented transitions in the context of competitive regionalism: the case of Sudan