Potential Market for Novel Tuberculosis Diagnostics: Worth the Investment?

This study estimated the potential available market in 2020 in 4 high-burden countries - South Africa, Brazil, China and India

From:: Department for International Development
Published: 1 January 2015

Country:: Brazil, China, India and South Africa
Document Type:: Journal Article
Theme:: Health
Authors:: Denkinger, C.M., Madhukar Pai, Ginnard, J., Jefferson, C. and Kik, S.V.

Abstract

Background: The potential available market (PAM) for new diagnostics for tuberculosis that meet the specifications of the high-priority target product profiles (TPPs) is currently unknown.

Methods: We estimated the PAM in 2020 in 4 high-burden countries (South Africa, Brazil, China, and India) for tests that meet the specifications outlined in the TPPs. The yearly PAM was estimated for the most likely application of each TPP.

Results. In 2020 the PAM for all 4 countries together was estimated to be (1) 12M tests/year with a value of 48M-71M USD for a sputum smear-replacement test; (2) 16M tests/year with a value of 65M–97M USD for a biomarker test; (3) 18M tests/year with a value of 18M–35M USD for a triage test; (4) 12M tests/year with a value of 59M–2238M USD for a tuberculosis detection plus drug susceptibility test (DST) all-in-one or 1.5M tests/year for a DST that follows a positive tuberculosis detection test with a corresponding value of 75M–121M for both tuberculosis detection and DST.

Conclusions: Although there is a considerable potential market for novel tuberculosis diagnostics that fit the specification of the TPPs in the 4 high-burden countries, the actual market for an individual product remains uncertain.

Citation

Kik, S.V.; Denkinger, C.M.; Jefferson, C.; Ginnard, J.; Madhukar Pai. Potential Market for Novel Tuberculosis Diagnostics: Worth the Investment? University of Chicago Press / Oxford University Press (OUP): Policy A1 - Oxford Open Option C, (2015) S66 pp. [DOI: 10.1093/infdis/jiu817]