Quantifying trends in disease impact to produce a consistent and reproducible definition of an emerging infectious disease
This study suggests a simple quantitative approach, segmented regression, to characterise the emergence of diseases
Abstract
The proper allocation of public health resources for research and control requires quantification of both a disease’s current burden and the trend in its impact. Infectious diseases that have been labeled as “emerging infectious diseases’’ (EIDs) have received heightened scientific and public attention and resources. However, the label ‘emerging’ is rarely backed by quantitative analysis and is often used subjectively. This can lead to over-allocation of resources to diseases that are incorrectly labelled “emerging,’’ and insufficient allocation of resources to diseases for which evidence of an increasing or high sustained impact is strong. We suggest a simple quantitative approach, segmented regression, to characterize the trends and emergence of diseases.
Citation
Funk, S., Bogich, T.L., Jones, K.E., Kilpatrick, M., Daszak, P., Quantifying trends in disease impact to produce a consistent and reproducible definition of an emerging infectious disease, PLos One, vol.8, issue8, 2013