Supporting Electrification Policy in Fragile States: A Conflict-Adjusted Geospatial Least Cost Approach for Afghanistan
This paper presents electrification results from an explorative methodology, where the costs and risks of conflict are explicitly considered
Abstract
This paper presents electrification results from an explorative methodology, where the costs and risks of conflict are explicitly considered in a geo-spatial, least cost electrification model. Discount factor and risk premium adjustments are introduced per technology and location in order to examine changes in electrification outlooks in Afghanistan. Findings indicate that the cost optimal electrification mix is very sensitive to the local context; yet, certain patterns emerge. Urban populations create a strong consumer base for grid electricity, in some cases even under higher risk. For peri-urban and rural areas, electrification options are more sensitive to conflict-induced risk variation. In this paper, we identify these inflection points, quantify key decision parameters, and present policy recommendations for universal electrification of Afghanistan by 2030.
This research is part of the Energy and Economic Growth Applied Research Programme
Citation
Korkovelos, A.; Mentis, D.; Bazilian, M.; Howells, M.; Saraj, A.; Fayez Hotaki, S.; Missfeldt-Ringius, F. Supporting Electrification Policy in Fragile States: A Conflict-Adjusted Geospatial Least Cost Approach for Afghanistan. Sustainability 2020, 12, 777. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12030777