Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of extinction probabilities suggest that adult female mortality is the weakest link for populations of tsetse (Glossina spp).
This paper offers insights into factors affecting the control or eradication of tsetse populations
Abstract
A relatively simple life history allows us to derive an expression for the extinction probability of populations of tsetse, vectors of African sleeping sickness. We present the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the extinction probability, to offer key insights into factors affecting the control or eradication of tsetse populations.
We represent tsetse population growth as a branching process, and derive closed form estimates of population extinction from that model. Statistical and mathematical techniques are used to analyse the uncertainties in estimating extinction probability, and the sensitivity of the extinction probability to changes in input parameters representing the natural life history and vital dynamics of tsetse populations.
This is a publication arising from the Zoonoses and Emerging Livestock Systems (ZELS) programme
Citation
Are E, Hargrove J (2020). Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of extinction probabilities suggest that adult female mortality is the weakest link for populations of tsetse (Glossina spp). PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 14:e0007854.