Water resources and extreme events in the Awash basin: economic effects and policy implications
This study analyses the sensitivity of the basin’s crop production to water scarcity and extreme hydrological events
Abstract
The economy of the Awash basin is highly exposed to hydrological variability. Despite an apparently abundant supply of water in aggregate terms, the basin routinely suffers from localised water shortages at specific points in space and time, and is prone to destructive episodes of flood and drought. This report, produced by Vivid Economics on behalf of the Global Green Growth Institute, seeks to better understand and quantify this critical economic vulnerability, and draw out the implications for water management policies.
The study analyses the sensitivity of the basin’s crop production to water scarcity and extreme hydrological events, before considering how these impacts transmit to other sectors. Under current economic conditions, the report finds the consequences of hydrological variability to be severe. Plausible future hydrological conditions drawn from global climate models, applied to the Growth and Transition Planning period (GTP) from 2011-15, lead to swings in basin GDP of the order of 5-20%. Furthermore, as the economy is projected to grow sharply in coming years so is the degree of water scarcity. Unless rapid and very substantial policy changes are enacted to mitigate this sensitivity, these estimates will serve as lower bound estimates of future impacts.
This report is an output of the REACH Improving Water Security for the Poor programme
Citation
Vivid Economics. Water resources and extreme events in the Awash basin: economic effects and policy implications, Report prepared for the Global Green Growth Institute. April 2016, 27p
Links
Water resources and extreme events in the Awash basin: economic effects and policy implications