Notice

Behavioural Analytics for Defence and Security

Published 11 October 2018

1. Introduction

This Defence and Security Accelerator (DASA) competition is seeking proposals that can help UK Defence and Security to develop capability in ‘Behavioural Analytics’. We are looking for scientific and technological solutions that can provide context-specific insights into the ‘how’ and ‘why’ of individual, group and population behaviour, enabling predictions about how they are likely to act in the future.
The initial funding for all phases of this competition is up to £5 million although this is likely to rise given increasing stakeholder interest in Behavioural Analytics. The competition will be run in 3 phases

• Phase 1: initial theories, principles, proof of concept
• Phase 2: demonstration or validation in a relevant environment
• Phase 3: demonstration or validation in an operational environment

Phase 1 of this competition has £1.6 million available to fund multiple proposals.

Phase 1 of this competition closes at midday on Wednesday 5 December 2018.

2. Competition Scope

2.1 Background

This competition addresses the need to understand the identities, interests and motivations of individuals, groups and networks in order to achieve tactical, strategic or operational behavioural effect. It focusses specifically on Behavioural Analytics which is defined here as context-specific insights, derived from data, into the ‘how’ and ‘why’ of individual, group and population behaviour, enabling reliable predictions about how they are likely to act in the future.

The competition is one of several complementary research activities that support the development of a behavioural analytic capability fit for the future UK defence and security operating environment. Research and analysis by the UK Ministry of Defence’s (MODs) Defence Concepts and Doctrine Centre (DCDC) highlights the increasingly important role of understanding human behaviour in the future operating environment 2035. It acknowledges that whilst technological advances in fields such as big data and data analytics are likely to mitigate some of the inherent challenges associated with understanding human behaviour and activity in the future, they alone will not provide the whole answer. It will be essential to achieve nuanced understanding as analysis and predictive modelling of social behaviour will increasingly support decision makers in Defence and Security (Lock, R., Uttely, M. & Lyall, P. (2011) Honing Defence’s Intellectual Edge ). Similar views are expressed in the UK Home Office report ‘Countering the terrorist threat: Social and Behavioural Science’.

Whilst achieving the required level of nuanced understanding in future is forecast to be challenging, it also expected to become more important. This is reflected in the recently published Joint Concept Note 2/18 on ‘Information Advantage’ which states that “Information is no longer just an enabler, it is a fully-fledged national lever of power, a critical enabler to understanding, decision-making and tempo, and a ‘weapon’ to be used from strategic to tactical level for advantage”.

The vast amount of data generated by humans offers enormous potential to change how scientists can observe and understand behaviour in order to achieve behavioural effect. Investment continues into novel data analytics and algorithms, machine learning and artificial intelligence (AI). This competition specifically focusses on data and tools to directly assist those who deliver a behavioural analytics capability and those who use the resulting understanding of human behaviour. New and innovative theories, methods, models and tools are required to enable UK defence and security personnel to harness the value from data and develop capability in Behavioural Analytics.

2.2 Scope

We are interested in innovative contributions to how UK Defence and Security can develop and improve its capability in Behavioural Analytics. This is an emerging research area for MOD and to inform the scope of this competition an open invitation workshop was held, with relevant stakeholders from Government, industry and academia, in London on 13 September 2018.

Influence is now central to military and security activities because it is recognised that words, images and actions can achieve strategic, operational and tactical effects.

At this stage of the competition we are limiting the scope to theoretical development, methodological advancement and proof of concept research. We want to fund research to get the foundations right. However, we also ask bidders to consider future exploitation.

Any proposal that seeks to improve our understanding of the creators and users of human behavioural data is in scope. Generic tools for big data and data analytics (such as filtering, storage or pattern recognition) are out of scope unless they are specifically shown to relate to the challenge of understanding or modelling human attitudes and behaviour.

The problem space is broad and diverse, and the solutions should be too. We are committed to funding a range of exciting and diverse proposals that have the capacity to advance behavioural analytical capability.

We welcome applications from across a range of research disciplines, from psychology and neuroscience to AI and data science, as well as inter-disciplinary research collaborations and perspectives. We also welcome applications from people bringing novel perspectives from alternative disciplines such as the arts, humanities and social sciences.

3. Competition Challenges

3.1 Challenges

There are four priority areas for research investment. It is important to note that these should not be viewed as rigid, singular themes – they are not mutually exclusive. Your proposal must meet at least one of the challenges, but we welcome bids that address more than one.

Challenge 1: How does observed data relate to behaviour? This challenge looks at the relationship between data and established scientific theories, models and principles. The vast amount of data generated by humans offers enormous potential to change how scientists can observe and understand human attitudes and behaviour. It is now possible to study millions of individual actions (for example when people log in, set a status, ‘like’ something, change a setting, set an alarm, activate a service or upload data).

In this challenge we are looking for solutions that will help:

• understand what variables or factors are of most interest
• identify descriptive factors, predictive factors, causal factors, clusters, correlations, mediators and moderators
• explore relationships between observed data and extant scientific theories, models and principles
• improve confidence levels in the relationships between data and behaviour (qualitatively and quantitatively)
• improve cross-cultural, and cross-generational application of theories, models and principles
• develop new theories, models and principles that underpin the relationship between data and behaviour

Challenge 2: How can we harness new sources of data to reliably understand and forecast behaviour in a defence and security context?

Research in this challenge area will explore novel data sets that could be used to reliably understand and forecast attitudes and behaviours of individuals, groups and populations. We will not be providing data sets for Phase 1 of this competition.

In this challenge we are looking for solutions that will help:

• identify novel approaches to exploit data sources currently available to understand human behaviour
• explore new data types (for example, haptics, audio, visual, physical, biological, psychological, social)
• explore innovative concepts (such as value creation mechanisms, redesigned discussion systems, synthetic enhancements)
• identify ways to combine different data sources to increase behavioural understanding, such as bio-psycho-social markers. (We are interested in the theoretical combination of data from different sources and what this can offer into understanding human behaviour. Proposals that offer purely mechanistic combination of data only will be considered out of scope)
• suggest what innovative sources of data can support understanding at the individual, group and / or population levels; use a data driven approach to generate new behavioural insights.

Challenge 3: What new methods and models can we develop to understand behaviour in a defence and security context?

This challenge relates to how we can develop new qualitative and quantitative methods that can deal with the complexity of human behavioural data.

In this challenge we are interested in proposals that will help:

• develop novel mathematical or statistical techniques that generate behavioural insight from big or disparate data sets
• explore ways for predicting or responding to inherently rare events where training data sets are small or of poor quality
• identify how to conduct intelligent prioritisation of risk
• mix qualitative or quantitative and objective or subjective analytical methods to aid understanding
• identify better ways of assessing probability
• explore novel validity and reliability markers or metrics for novel human datasets

Challenge 4: How can we help defence and security practitioners to understand the insights arising from Behavioural Analytics?

This challenge looks at how we can improve usability of results from Behavioural Analytics by an end user to help inform their decision making, including how we can calculate and communicate the relative reliability of the insight derived. It focusses on fundamental questions such as ‘What does useful mean?’, ‘Can I trust this data / advice / forecast?’, ‘What biases underpin these results?’ and from an end user perspective ‘What form of understanding do I really need?’.

In this challenge we are interested in proposals that will help:

• explore human capacity, capability and limits to maintaining cognitive clarity when working with human behavioural data and predictive insight
• identify innovative methods for rapid assimilation of complex objective and subjective data, including visualisation and other approaches
• understand the cognitive trade-offs between the retention of an increasing volume of complex data and the ability to make effective and rapid decisions
• explore human-machine teaming to address human limitations and achieve information advantage (understanding, decision-making, tempo of activity and assessment)
• integrate deterministic and non-deterministic human-machine decision making models
• explore cutting edge neuroscientific advances relevant to understanding human behaviour (for example, brain-computer interfaces)
• develop interactive information displays capable of enhancing cognitive performance specifically to achieve information advantage
• identify novel physical and / or psychological models to explain and improve information processing thresholds
• create ways to support user sense making, bias recognition and anticipatory or adaptive thinking
• investigate understanding of uncertainty and its presentation in results
• improve the useful visualisation of behavioural insights for multiple and diverse users
• lessen the technical training burden for users of human behavioural data and insights who do not have either a data or social science background

3.2 Clarification of what we want

We want novel ideas to benefit users working in UK Defence and Security. Your proposal should include evidence of:

• theoretical development, methodological advancement or proof of concept research which can demonstrate potential for translation to practical demonstration in later phases
• innovation or a creative approach
• clear demonstration of how the proposed work applies to any defence and security context explicit relevance to improving actionable understanding and insight into human behaviour

3.3 Clarification of what we don’t want

For this competition we are not interested in proposals that:

• constitute consultancy, paper-based studies or literature reviews which just summarise the existing literature without any view of future innovation (which therefore cannot be extended into Phase 2)
• do not offer significant benefit to defence and security capability
• are an identical resubmission of a previous bid to DASA or MOD without modification
• offer demonstrations of off-the-shelf products requiring no experimental development (unless applied in a novel way to the challenge)
• offer no real long-term prospect of integration into defence and security capabilities
• offer no real prospect of out-competing existing technological solutions
• offer solely a mechanistic data solution (such as data fusion, storage, data filtering)
• are purely algorithmic and do not offer any insights into behaviour
• merge different data sets on the assumption it will add value but have no clear impact on Behavioural Analytics as a capability
• do not specifically relate to the challenge of deriving understanding and actionable insight into human behaviour from data
• introduce technology used in other sectors without any attempt to explain how it can be used in a military or security context in a novel way
• exploit existing technologies which just analyse or measure behavioural data and offer no new insights into what this data can be used for or which new theories this could support
• offer sourcing and accumulation of relevant behavioural data without applying any novel form of analysis

4. Exploitation

It is important that over the lifetime of DASA competitions, ideas are matured and accelerated towards appropriate end-users to enhance capability. How long this takes will be dependent on the nature and starting point of the innovation. Early identification and appropriate engagement with potential end-users during the competition and subsequent phases are essential.

All proposals to DASA should articulate the expected development in Technology Readiness Level (TRL) of the potential solution over the lifetime of the contract and how this relates to improved operational capability against the current known (or presumed) baseline. Your deliverables should be designed to evidence these aspects with the aim of making it as easy as possible for possible collaborators to identify the innovative elements of your proposal in order to consider routes for exploitation. DASA Innovation Partners are available to support you with defence and security context. For further information on TRLs, please see here.

While this phase is focussed on TRL >2, subsequent phases will focus on TRL >3 in order to move concepts closer to exploitation. Phase 1 should be used to generate evidence to support potential bids for Phase 2, You may wish to include some of the following information, where known, to help the assessors understand your exploitation plans:

• the intended defence or security users of your final product and whether you have previously engaged with them, their procurement arm or their research and development arm
• awareness of, and alignment to, any existing end-user procurement programmes
• the anticipated benefits (for example, in cost, time, improved capability) that your solution will provide to the user
• whether it is likely to be a standalone product or integrated with other technologies or platforms
• expected additional work required beyond the end of the contract to develop an operationally deployable commercial product (for example, ‘scaling up’ for manufacture, cyber security, integration with existing technologies, environmental operating conditions)
• additional future applications and wider markets for exploitation
• wider collaborations and networks you have already developed or any additional relationships you see as a requirement to support exploitation
• requirements for access to external assets, including Government Furnished Assets (GFA) - for example, information, equipment, materials and facilities
• how your product could be tested in a representative environment in later phases
• any specific legal, ethical, commercial or regulatory considerations for exploitation

5. How to apply

Proposals for funding to meet these challenges must be submitted by midday 5 December 2018 via the DASA submission service for which you will be required to register.

The initial funding of £1.6 million is expected to fund at least 16 proposals. Proposals must be lower than £100k cost to DASA. Any proposals received that are in excess of £100k cost to DASA will be automatically deemed non-compliant. If successful, contracts will be awarded for a maximum duration of 8 months.

Additional funding for further phases to increase TRL further may be available. Any further phases will be open to applications from all suppliers and not just those that submitted Phase 1 successful bids.

Further guidance on submitting a proposal is available on the DASA website.

5.1 What your proposal must include

The proposal should focus on the Phase 1 requirements but must also include a brief outline of the next stages of work required for exploitation.

When submitting a proposal, you must complete all sections of the online form, including an appropriate level of technical information to allow assessment of the bid and a completed finances section.

A project plan with clear milestones and deliverables must also be provided. Deliverables must be well defined and designed to provide evidence of progress against the project plan and the end-point for this phase.

A resourcing plan must also be provided that identifies, where possible, the nationalities of those proposed Research Workers that you intend working on this phase. In the event of proposals being recommended for funding, the DASA reserves the right to undertake due diligence checks including the clearance of proposed Research Workers. Please note that this process will take as long as necessary and could take up to 6 weeks in some cases for non-UK nationals.

You must identify any ethical / legal / regulatory factors within your proposal and how the associated risks will be managed, including break points in the project if approvals are not received. MODREC approvals can take up to 3 months therefore you should plan your work programme accordingly. Further details are available in the DASA guidance. If you are unsure if your proposal will need to apply for MODREC approval, then please contact DASA for further guidance.

In addition, requirements for access to Government Furnished Assets (GFA) must be included in your proposal. DASA cannot guarantee that GFA will be available.

Completed proposals must comply with the financial limit for this competition which has an upper limit of £100k per proposal. Proposals will be rejected if the financial cost exceeds this capped level.

Proposals must include costed participation at the following two DASA events:

• a collaboration/start-up event
• a demonstration event

Both events will be held in the UK.

Failure to provide any of the above listed will automatically render your proposal non-compliant.

5.2 Public facing information

A brief abstract will be requested if the proposal is funded. This will be used by DASA and other government departments as appropriate, to describe the project and its intended outcomes and benefits. The abstract will be used at DASA events in relation to this competition and placed on the DASA website, along with your company information and generic contact details.

5.3 How your proposal will be assessed

All proposals will be checked for compliance with the competition document and may be rejected before full assessment if they do not comply. Only those proposals who demonstrate their compliance against the competition scope and DASA criteria will be taken forward to full assessment. Failure to achieve full compliance against stage 1 will render your proposal non-compliant and will not be considered any further:

Mandatory Criteria
The proposal outlines how it meets the scope of the competition.	Within scope (Pass) / Out of scope (Fail)
The proposal fully explains in all three sections of the DASA submission service how it meets the DASA criteria	Pass / Fail
The proposal clearly details a financial plan, a project plan and a resourcing plan to complete the work proposed in Phase 1	Pass / Fail
The proposal identifies the need (or not) for MODREC approval	Pass / Fail
The proposal identifies any GFA required for phase 1	Pass / Fail
Maximum value of proposal is £100k	Pass / Fail

Proposals will then be assessed against the standard DASA assessment criteria by subject matter experts from the MOD (including Dstl), other government departments and front-line military commands. You will not have the opportunity to comment on assessors comments.

DASA reserves the right to disclose on a confidential basis any information it receives from bidders during the procurement process (including information identified by the bidder as Commercially Sensitive Information in accordance with the provisions of this competition) to any third party engaged by DASA for the specific purpose of evaluating or assisting DASA in the evaluation of the bidder’s proposal. In providing such information the bidder consents to such disclosure. Appropriate confidentiality agreements will be put in place.

Further guidance on how your proposal is assessed is available on the DASA website.

After assessment, proposals will be discussed internally at a Decision Conference where, based on the assessments, budget and wider strategic considerations, a decision will be made on the proposals that are recommended for funding.

Proposals that are unsuccessful will receive brief feedback after the Decision Conference.

5.4 Things you should know about DASA contracts

Please read the DASA terms and conditions which contain important information for suppliers. For this competition we will be using the Short Form Contract (SFC).

Funded projects will be allocated a Technical Partner as a technical point of contact. In addition, the DASA team will work with you to support delivery and exploitation.

We will use deliverables from DASA contracts in accordance with our rights detailed in the contract terms and conditions.

6. Phase 1 Dates

Dial in	Monday 29 October 2018 morning
Pre bookable 1-1 telecom sessions	Monday 29 October 2018 afternoon Friday 2 November 2018 all day
Competition closes	Wednesday 5 December 2018 at midday
Contracting	Aim to start contracts by 1 February 2019 and end 8 months later in September 2019

6.1 Supporting events

• Monday 29 October 2018 (morning) – A dial-in session providing further detail on the problem space and a chance to ask questions in an open forum. There will be a short description of the MODREC process for those that require it at the end of the question and answer session. If you would like to participate, please register on the Eventbrite page.
• Monday 29 October 2018 (afternoon) and Friday 2 November 2018 (all day) – A series of 20 minute one-to-one teleconference sessions, giving you the opportunity to ask specific questions. If you would like to participate on Monday 29 October (afternoon), please register on the Eventbrite page or to participate on Friday 2 November, please register on the Eventbrite page.

7. Help

Competition queries including on process, application, technical, commercial and intellectual property aspects should be sent to accelerator@dstl.gov.uk, quoting the competition title.

While all reasonable efforts will be made to answer queries, DASA reserves the right to impose management controls if volumes of queries restrict fair access of information to all potential suppliers.