Research and analysis

Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme: quantitative research with employers wave 2: Executive Summary

Published 17 July 2023

Prepared by Ipsos for HMRC

Rebecca Klahr, Krishna Dabhi, Pascal Roelcke, Noah Coltman (Ipsos)

Research report number: 711

July 2023

The views in this report are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect those of HM Revenue and Customs.

Executive summary

Background

The Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (CJRS) was available to employers from April 2020 to September 2021 and aimed to support employers affected by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.

HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) commissioned Ipsos to undertake quantitative research with employers to examine their experiences of applying for the CJRS and the impacts of the scheme on redundancies and business survival.

A random probability survey was conducted with UK employers who successfully applied for the CJRS (Users) and UK employers who were eligible for the CJRS but did not use it (Non-Users). A first survey (wave 1) was undertaken between 18 November 2020 and 5 February 2021 among 5,244 Users, 1,161 Agents and 1,816 Non-Users. A second survey (wave 2) was conducted between 11 July and 21 November 2022 among 4,860 Users and 1,807 Non-Users. This report focuses on findings from wave 2 of the survey.

Awareness and understanding of the CJRS

Non-Users were asked how much they knew about the CJRS before the survey interview. Only 2% had not heard of the scheme, and more than 6 in 10 (64%) said they knew a great deal or a fair amount about it. However, 3 in 10 (33%) said they knew a little about the scheme or had only heard of it. Of those Users that applied from May 2020 onwards, 4 in 10 (41%) said they did not apply sooner because they did not need to do so.

Impact of COVID-19 on employers

More than 9 in 10 (94%) Users were trading at the time of the survey, with 60% having continued to operate throughout the pandemic and 34% having recently reopened after a period of closure. Fewer than 1 in 10 had closed at the time of the survey, either temporarily (3%) or permanently (3%). Only a small proportion of Non-Users had closed at the time of the survey, either temporarily (2%) or permanently (1%). The majority (92%) of Non-Users had continued to operate throughout the pandemic.

More than 7 in 10 Users that were currently trading (72%) said that COVID-19 had a negative impact on their sales or turnover, while 8% said their turnover had increased and 16% said that it had stayed the same. Non-Users were less likely than Users to say their turnover had decreased because of COVID-19 (40%), while 18% said it had increased and 39% that it had stayed the same.

Impact of the CJRS on organisations

The findings suggest that the CJRS was being used by employers that were most in need of external support. Users were more likely to have been negatively impacted by COVID-19: 72% reported that their sales or turnover had declined compared to 40% of Non-Users, and the scale of this decline was greater in size too. Non-Users were more likely to have continued operating throughout the pandemic (92% compared to 60% of Users).

The majority of Users (83%) had taken other actions to protect the jobs of their employees, including taking out a government backed loan (46%), grant (42%), or claiming government relief (19%). Some also made internal changes to reduce costs or boost revenue. The actions Users took included changes to reduce costs (36%) and changes to employees’ contracts and work hours (27%). Over half of Users (54%) reported that the CJRS helped their organisation the most to continue operating and over 7 in 10 reported that the CJRS helped their organisation the most to protect jobs (72%).

Overall, 2 in 10 (20%) Users said they would have had to close permanently without the CJRS, but in fact were still trading at the time of the survey (or had only closed temporarily). These closures would have affected around 2 million jobs. A further 10% of Users said they would have had to close temporarily without the CJRS, but in fact had traded continuously throughout the pandemic.

The CJRS had a positive impact on reducing job losses caused by COVID-19 among Users. Over half (57%) reported that they would have made more employees redundant due to COVID-19 in the absence of the CJRS. This meant that around 4.4 million jobs (21% of the User workforce) may have been lost without the CJRS, either by permanent closure or redundancy as a result of COVID-19. This figure is the combined total of jobs that would have been lost if employers had permanently closed their business due to COVID-19 (around 2 million jobs) and employees that would have been made redundant without CJRS support (around 2.4 million jobs).