COVID-19 reasonable worst-case planning assumptions, 10 March 2020
Paper prepared for the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE).
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Paper endorsed by SAGE on reasonable worst-case (RWC) planning assumptions. It was considered at SAGE 14 on 10 March 2020.
It should be viewed in context: the paper was the best assessment of the evidence at the time of writing. The picture is developing rapidly and, as new evidence or data emerges, SAGE updates its advice accordingly.
Therefore, some of the information in this paper may have been superseded and the author’s opinion or conclusion may since have developed.
These documents are released as pre-print publications that have provided the government with rapid evidence during an emergency. These documents have not been peer-reviewed and there is no restriction on authors submitting and publishing this evidence in peer-reviewed journals.