Appendix E. Risk management options
Updated 26 January 2023
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Zoonotic risk of an identified animal pathogen
Examples of actions for a risk manager following assessment of the zoonotic risk of an identified animal pathogen:
| Level | Descriptor | Considerations | Actions |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Non-human pathogen | At this stage, consider microbiology investigations to establish: - RNA/DNA stability - risk of reassortment - virulence factor - phylogenetic relationship - cross-species spread |
Share collated information and output of risk assessment with the UK Veterinary Risk Group. |
| 1 | Human infection although no proven zoonotic source | At this stage, assess the ability of the surveillance system to detect evidence of infection. Consider expanding the system of detection if necessary. If evidence of infection present but no obvious zoonotic link, consider setting up studies to ascertain exposure risk factors | Share collated information and output from risk assessment with appropriate public health bodies. |
| 2 | Zoonotic infection | After zoonotic infection identified, establish how it manifests in humans. | Assess threat to UK population. Revisit risk assessment if further clinical information becomes available. Share collated information and output of risk assessment with relevant government agencies. |
| 3A | Zoonotic pathogen | Assess the severity of infection in humans and establish appropriate clinical disease surveillance | Assess threat to the UK population. Consider risk communication and methods of reducing exposure of humans to affected animals and potential environmental sources. Share collated information and output of risk assessment with relevant government agencies. |
| 3B | Significant zoonotic pathogen without person-to-person transmission | Assess the risk of person-to-person transmission | Assess threat to the UK population. Consider risk communication and methods of reducing exposure of humans to affected animals and potential environmental sources. Share collated information and output of risk assessment with relevant government agencies. |
| 4 | Significant zoonotic pathogen with person-to-person transmission | Assess threat to UK population. Consider risk communication and methods of reducing person-to-person transmission and exposure of humans to affected animals and potential environmental sources. Share collated information and output of risk assessment with relevant government agencies. |
Zoonotic risk of a novel animal syndrome of unknown aetiology
Examples of actions for risk managers following assessment of the zoonotic risk of a novel animal syndrome of unknown aetiology:
| Level | Descriptor | Considerations | Actions |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Non-human syndrome | At this stage, explore whether there is any disease in humans that would produce a similar clinical picture to this novel disease. | Share collated information and output of risk assessment with the UK Veterinary Risk Group so other aspects associated with this threat that need specific risk assessment and/or management are appropriately pursued. |
| 1 | Comparable human syndrome with no apparent epidemiological evidence of zoonotic link | At this stage, assess the ability of the surveillance system to detect any increase of cases. | Share collated information and output of risk assessment with the UK Veterinary Risk Group and appropriate UK public health bodies so other aspects associated with this threat that need specific risk assessment and management are appropriately pursued. |
| 2 | Syndrome with potential zoonotic link | Establish any zoonotic link with the disease | Assess threat to UK population. Revisit risk assessment if further clinical information becomes available. Share collated information and output of risk assessment with relevant government agencies. |
| 3A | Syndrome with zoonotic link | Assess the severity of disease in human | Assess threat to the UK population. Consider risk communication and methods of reducing exposure of humans to affected animals and potential environmental sources. Share collated information and output of risk assessment with relevant government agencies. |
| 3B | Significant syndrome with zoonotic link | Assess the risk of person-to-person transmission | Assess threat to the UK population. Consider risk communication and methods of reducing exposure of humans to affected animals and potential environmental sources. Share collated information and output of risk assessment with relevant government agencies. |
| 4 | Significant syndrome with zoonotic link and person-to-person transmission | Assess threat to UK population. Consider risk communication and methods of reducing person-to-person transmission and exposure of humans to affected animals and potential environmental sources. Share collated information and output of risk assessment with relevant government agencies. |
Risk to the UK population from a new or emerging pathogen
Examples of actions for risk managers following assessment of the risk to the UK population from a new or emerging pathogen:
Very low
If the probability or impact is ‘very low’, the risk of such an event is often deemed acceptable without the implementation of mitigation strategies. If appropriate, consider communications with relevant at-risk groups.
Low
If the probability or impact is ‘low’, expected actions would include:
- implementation of mitigation strategies should be considered in terms of the efficacy, impact and practicability of potential measures
- continue to monitor
- if appropriate, consider communications with relevant at-risk groups
Moderate
If the probability or impact is ‘moderate’, expected actions would include:
- mitigation strategies must be reviewed immediately and escalation should be considered
- share collated information and output of risk assessment with relevant government agencies
- if appropriate, consider communications with relevant at-risk groups
High
If the probability or impact is ‘high’, expected actions would include:
- control measures and escalation must be implemented without delay and multi-agency action groups formed
- share collated information and output of risk assessment with relevant government agencies
- if appropriate, consider communications with relevant at-risk groups
Very high
If the probability or impact is ‘very high’, this would be a public health emergency. Actions would include:
- considerable and immediate effort to reduce the impact and prevent the event is required
- urgent escalation is essential