ONS and DHSC: Estimating additional deaths to expand the reasonable worst-case scenarios, 6 August 2020
Paper prepared by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC).
Documents
Details
Paper prepared by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) on the reasonable worst-case scenarios.
This paper was presented at SAGE 50 on 6 August 2020. It should be read alongside:
- Reasonable worst-case scenario adjustment workbook, also released under SAGE 50
and considered in the context of these statements released under SAGE 49:
- SPI-M-O: Update on planning and reasonable worst-case scenarios
- SPI-M-O Expert narratives for potential Autumn and Winter Events
These outputs should not be interpreted as a forecast of what is most likely to happen, but rather scenarios to inform planning at the time. Reasonable worst-case scenarios are considered for planning to ensure that we are able to respond to a range of scenarios. As new evidence or data emerges, SAGE updates its advice accordingly. You can find the most recent analysis from ONS here.
These documents are released as pre-print publications that have provided the government with rapid evidence during an emergency. These documents have not been peer-reviewed and there is no restriction on authors submitting and publishing this evidence in peer-reviewed journals.