Planning scenarios for the next 6 months, 25 March 2020
Paper prepared by the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis (MRC GIDA), Imperial College.
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Paper by MRC GIDA in response to a commission to look at COVID-19 planning scenarios for the next 6 months. It was considered at SAGE 19 on 26 March 2020.
This is an annex to the SPI-M-O working group on scenario planning, consensus view on COVID-19 as published under SAGE 19 and should be read in that context. This annex was 1 of 3 modelling approaches considered in the SPI-M-O consensus view, which summarises the main insights across the available evidence and modelling at the time.
Please note that this paper considered a ‘reasonable worse case’ scenario. These results should not be interpreted as a forecast of what is most likely to happen, but rather indicative outputs to inform planning at the time. RWCs are considered for planning to ensure that we are able to respond to a range of scenarios). These modelling outputs are subject to uncertainty given the evidence available at the time, and dependent on the assumptions made.
It should be viewed in context: the paper was the best assessment of the evidence at the time of writing. The picture is developing rapidly and, as new evidence or data emerges, SAGE updates its advice accordingly.
Therefore, some of the information in this paper may have been superseded and the author’s opinion or conclusion may since have developed.
These documents are released as pre-print publications that have provided the government with rapid evidence during an emergency. These documents have not been peer-reviewed and there is no restriction on authors submitting and publishing this evidence in peer-reviewed journals.
Redactions within this document have been made to remove any personal details.