SPI-M-O: Consensus statement on COVID-19, 28 October 2020
Consensus statement from the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling, Operational sub-group (SPI-M-O) for the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE).
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Consensus statement from SPI-M-O on COVID-19. It was considered at SAGE 64 on 29 October 2020.
The paper is the assessment of the evidence at the time of writing. As new evidence or data emerges, SAGE updates its advice accordingly.
This paper contains estimates of the reproduction number (R) and growth rate for the UK, 4 nations and NHS England (NHSE) regions.
Different modelling groups use different data sources to estimate these values using mathematical models that simulate the spread of infections. Some may even use all these sources of information to adjust their models to better reflect the real-world situation. There is uncertainty in all these data sources, which is why estimates can vary between different models, and why we do not rely on one model; evidence from several models is considered, discussed, combined, and the growth rate and R are then presented as ranges.
See latest R number and growth rates, and further background.
This paper also contains medium-term projections and scenarios. These are not forecasts or predictions, and cannot fully reflect changes in transmission that might have occurred over the past two to three weeks. They do not account for the impact of future policy or behavioural changes that might reduce transmission, nor seasonal effects that may affect transmission.
Find out more about the medium-term projections.
This paper references a reasonable worst-case planning scenario (RWCS). RWCS should not be interpreted as a forecast or prediction of what is most likely to happen. They do not represent the full range of possible outcomes and no likelihood is attached to these scenarios.
It also references preliminary analysis from one group which suggests that for each day that measures are relaxed, 5 days of stringent measures are required to reduce prevalence again. More information can be found in the accompanying explainer document.
These documents are released as pre-print publications that have provided the government with rapid evidence during an emergency. These documents have not been peer-reviewed and there is no restriction on authors submitting and publishing this evidence in peer-reviewed journals.