Research and analysis

SPI-M-O: Medium-term projections and scenarios, 28 October 2020

COVID-19 projections prepared by the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling, Operational sub-group (SPI-M-O).

• From: Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies
• Published: 18 December 2020

Documents

SPI-M-O: Medium-term projections and scenarios, 28 October 2020

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Details

Medium-term projections and scenarios from SPI-M-O. It was considered at SAGE 64 on 29 October 2020.

These are an assessment of the evidence at the time of writing. As new evidence or data emerges, SAGE updates its advice accordingly.

These projections and scenarios should be read alongside the SPI-M-O: Consensus statement on COVID-19, 28 October 2020 released under SAGE 64.

The projections and 2 medium-term scenarios are not forecasts or predictions, and cannot reflect recent changes in transmission that have not yet filtered through into surveillance data, such as hospital admissions and deaths. They do not account for the impact of future policy or behavioural changes that might reduce transmission, nor seasonal effects that may affect transmission.

Projections are particularly uncertain during periods of transition, for example when significant interventions are introduced or relaxed. The projections included are based only on the observable trends and data available at the time the projections were produced.

Find out more about the medium-term projections.

The medium-term scenarios illustrate the most optimistic scenario (in terms of direct COVID-19 mortality and morbidity) that SPI-M-O considered to be plausible at the time of writing. As before, they are not forecasts or predictions.

This paper references a reasonable worst-case planning scenario (RWCS). RWCS should not be interpreted as a forecast or prediction of what is most likely to happen. They do not represent the full range of possible outcomes and no likelihood is attached to these scenarios.

These documents are released as pre-print publications that have provided the government with rapid evidence during an emergency. These documents have not been peer-reviewed and there is no restriction on authors submitting and publishing this evidence in peer-reviewed journals.

Published 18 December 2020