Research and analysis

SPI-M-O working group on scenario planning: Consensus view on COVID-19, 25 March 2020

Scenarios prepared by the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling, Operational sub-group (SPI-M-O) for the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE).

• From: Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies
• Published: 5 May 2020

Documents

SPI-M-O working group on scenario planning: Consensus view on COVID-19 - 25 March 2020

PDF, 137 KB, 4 pages

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Details

Consensus statement from SPI-M-O on reasonable worst case and optimistic scenarios for the COVID-19 outbreak in the UK to help inform government planning. The statement follows the implementation of behavioural and social interventions.

The paper was discussed at SAGE meeting 19 on 26 March 2020.

This evidence was often compiled very rapidly during a fast-moving response and should be viewed in this context. The paper presented here is the best assessment of the evidence at the time of writing, and the conclusions were formed on this basis. As new evidence or data emerges, SAGE updates its advice accordingly. Therefore, some of the information in this paper may have been superseded at a later date.

Published 5 May 2020