Research and analysis

Imperial College London: autumn and winter 2021 to 2022 – potential COVID-19 epidemic trajectories, 13 October 2021

Papers prepared by Imperial College London.

• From: Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies
• Published: 22 October 2021
• Last updated: 29 October 2021 — See all updates

Documents

Imperial College London autumn and winter 2021 to 2022 – potential COVID-19 epidemic trajectories – Part 1, 13 October 20212

PDF, 703 KB, 22 pages

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Imperial College London autumn and winter 2021 to 2022 – potential COVID-19 epidemic trajectories – Part 2, 13 October 2021

PDF, 289 KB, 6 pages

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Details

Papers from Imperial College London summarising modelling on scenarios for COVID-19 over autumn and winter, and a retrospective assessment of transmission during the roadmap for England. They were considered at SAGE 96 on 14 October 2021.

These papers are an assessment of the evidence at the time of writing. As new evidence or data emerges, SAGE updates its advice accordingly.

Part 1 should be read alongside the accompanying modelling papers from SAGE 96:

• SPI-M-O: Summary of modelling for scenarios for COVID-19 autumn and winter 2021 to 2022, 13 October 2021
• University of Warwick: Projections of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and COVID-19 disease until June 2022: the action of waning efficacyand boosters, 12 October 2021
• LSHTM: autumn–winter scenarios 2021 to 2022, 13 October 2021
• University of Bristol: Trade off between population immunity and return-to-work for COVID-19 control, Autumn and Winter 2021 Scenarios, 12 October 2021

Part 2 should be read alongside the accompanying summary paper also released under SAGE 96:

• SPI-M-O: Summary of modelling considerations for the reimposition of measures, 13 October 2021

These documents are released as pre-print publications that have provided the government with rapid evidence during an emergency. These documents have not been peer-reviewed and there is no restriction on authors submitting and publishing this evidence in peer-reviewed journals.

Published 22 October 2021
Last updated 29 October 2021 + show all updates

1. 29 October 2021

   Added Autumn and winter 2021 to 2022: potential COVID-19 epidemic trajectories – Part 2, 13 October 2021

2. 22 October 2021

   First published.