Research and analysis

University of Warwick: Projections of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and COVID-19 disease until June 2022, 12 October 2021

Papers prepared by University of Warwick.

• From: Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies
• Published: 22 October 2021
• Last updated: 29 October 2021 — See all updates

Documents

University of Warwick: Projections of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and COVID-19 disease until June 2022 – the action of waning efficacy and boosters, 12 October 2021

PDF, 10.2 MB, 26 pages

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University of Warwick: Projections of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and COVID-19 disease until June 2022 – exploration of control, 12 October 2021

PDF, 373 KB, 3 pages

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Details

Papers from the University of Warwick summarising modelling on scenarios for COVID-19 over Autumn and Winter. They were considered at SAGE 96 on 14 October 2021.

Theses paper are an assessment of the evidence at the time of writing. As new evidence or data emerges, SAGE updates its advice accordingly.

The first paper should be read alongside the accompanying modelling papers from SAGE 96:

• SPI-M-O: Summary of modelling for scenarios for COVID-19 autumn and winter 2021 to 2022, 13 October 2021
• LSHTM: autumn–winter scenarios 2021 to 2022, 13 October 2021
• Imperial College London: autumn and winter 2021 to 2022: potential COVID-19 epidemic trajectories - Part 1, 13 October 2021
• University of Bristol: Trade off between population immunity and return-to-work for COVID-19 control, autumn and winter 2021 scenarios, 12 October 2021

The second paper on exploration of control measures, should be read in conjunction with the first paper and the summary paper from SAGE 96:

• SPI-M-O: Summary of modelling considerations for the reimposition of measures, 13 October 2021

These documents are released as pre-print publications that have provided the government with rapid evidence during an emergency. These documents have not been peer-reviewed and there is no restriction on authors submitting and publishing this evidence in peer-reviewed journals.

Published 22 October 2021
Last updated 29 October 2021 + show all updates

1. 29 October 2021

   Added extra paper: Projections of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and COVID-19 disease until June 2022 – exploration of control, 12 October 2021.

2. 22 October 2021

   First published.