SPI-M-O: Medium-term projections, 21 October 2020
COVID-19 projections prepared by the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling, Operational sub-group (SPI-M-O).
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Medium-term projections from SPI-M-O. It was considered at SAGE 63 on 22 October 2020.
These are an assessment of the evidence at the time of writing. As new evidence or data emerges, SAGE updates its advice accordingly.
These projections should be read alongside the ‘SPI-M-O: Consensus statement on COVID-19’ released under SAGE 63.
These are not forecasts or predictions, and cannot reflect recent changes in transmission that have not yet filtered through into surveillance data, such as hospital admissions and deaths. They do not account for the impact of future policy or behavioural changes that might reduce transmission, nor seasonal effects that may affect transmission. They are based only on the observable trends and data available at the time the projections were produced.
Projections are particularly uncertain during periods of transition, for example when significant interventions are introduced or relaxed.
Find out more about the medium-term projections.
This paper references a reasonable worst-case planning scenario (RWCS). RWCS should not be interpreted as a forecast or prediction of what is most likely to happen. They do not represent the full range of possible outcomes and no likelihood is attached to these scenarios.
These documents are released as pre-print publications that have provided the government with rapid evidence during an emergency. These documents have not been peer-reviewed and there is no restriction on authors submitting and publishing this evidence in peer-reviewed journals.