Energy and emissions projections: 2021 to 2040
Projections of energy demand, greenhouse gas emissions and electricity generation from 2021 to 2040.
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Update 17 May 2023
Added Annex O: Net zero and the power sector scenarios, and all its supplementary data.
Update 10 March 2023
The revision (published 10 March 2023) is a correction due to an error in power sector modelling which was identified after publication. This led to some Combined Heat and Power (CHP) capacity being double-counted in the original October 2022 publication.
In comparison to the October 2022 reference projections, the correction means that emissions are now slightly higher for energy supply, and slightly lower for industry, particularly in the early 2020s. For each year after 2021, the net change is less than 1 MtCO2e.
This revised reference case has been added as a new sheet at the front of each affected annex (all except D, F and M).
The energy and emissions projections publication provides projections of energy, emissions and electricity generation under policies that have been implemented and those that are planned where the level of funding has been agreed and the design of the policy is near final.
The report contains projections of UK performance against national greenhouse gas targets under existing policies. It includes projections of the demand for each type of fuel in different sectors of the economy. The publication discusses the projected demand for electricity and indicates what mix of generation will meet it.
All enquiries about the projections should be sent to: emissionsprojections@beis.gov.uk. For questions on the assumptions behind the projections, please see Annex M for source information.
We are unable to provide any breakdown of projected renewable electricity generation, capacity or new build by technology.
Updates to this page
Published 18 October 2022Last updated 17 May 2023 + show all updates
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Added Annex O: Net zero and the power sector scenarios, and all its supplementary data.
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The revision is a correction due to an error in power sector modelling which was identified after publication. Revised reference case has been added as a new sheet at the front of each affected annex (all except D, F and M).
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Revised version of Annex E: Primary energy demand published.
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A revised version of 'Annex E: Primary energy demand' will be published on 9 December 2022 (rather than 30 November 2022 as previously stated). The other annexes are not affected.
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We have removed 'Annex E: Primary energy demand' because a particular type of gas demand was inadvertently excluded from the total. We will publish a revised version by 30 November 2022. The other annexes are not affected.
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First published.